Week 6 Results and Week 7 Picks

I’ve been on the road all week so I will keep this quick. Last week I went 6-6-1 overall but was 2-3 in system picks and 0-2 in experimental picks. Disappointing. Hopefully this week will be better but the lines in general seem to be very good.

 

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Overall: Titans, Bucs, Falcons, Broncos, Redskins, Browns, Jets, Raiders, Steelers, Cowboys, Vikings, Colts, Ravens

 

Top 5: Buccaneers PK (+105), Jets +1 (EV), Broncos PK (+105), Steelers -3.5 (-105), Ravens -7.5 (-105)

 

Experimental Bets: None

 

System Bets: Steelers -3.5 (-105)

Week 6 Picks

Overall: Rams, Jaguars, Redskins, 49ers, Panthers, Bengals, Bills, Texans, Browns, Cowboys, Saints, Vikings, Jets

 

Top 5: Redskins +1 (-105), 49ers +4 (-110), Panthers +3.5 (-110), Cowboys +7 (-110), Vikings +2.5 (+105)

 

Experimental Bets: Texans (+310), Cowboys (+250)

 

System Bets: Redskins +1 (-105), 49ers +4 (-110), Panthers +3.5 (-110), Cowboys +7 (-110), Vikings +2.5 (+105)

 

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Game Notes:

• St. Louis Rams (+15) @ Green Bay Packers (-15)
  • I know that the Rams have been terrible and the Packers have been great but this is still the NFL and 15 points is a lot. I’ll take the points but avoid this game.
• Jacksonville Jaguars (+12) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-12)
  • See my comment for the Rams Packers game.
• Philadelphia Eagles (-1) @ Washington Redskins (+1)
  • It seems like people still are giving the Eagles the benefit of the doubt. They have the talent to beat anyone but can’t seem to put all the pieces together. My system shows that the Redskins are a slight favorite plus they are at home plus they are getting a point. That is a recipe for a system pick.
• San Francisco 49ers (+4) @ Detroit Lions (-4)
  • My system ranks the 49ers and Lions as more or less equals in pass offense vs. pass defense and the 49ers rush offense vs. the Lions rush defense. However, the 49ers have a big edge when it is their rush defense vs. the Lions rush offense. I’ll take them and the points in a system pick based on this.
• Carolina Panthers (+3.5) @ Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
  • The Panthers keep losing close games and my system thinks they are a slightly better team than the Falcons. I will take them in a system pick.
• Indianapolis Colts (+7) @ Cincinnati Bengals (-7)
  • My system projects the Bengals as a heavy favorite but 7 is a lot of points and I don’t trust them to dominate teams they should beat easily. Therefore I’ll take the Bengals but avoid this game.
• Buffalo Bills (+3) @ New York Giants (-3)
  • System shows the Giants are a slight favorite which agrees with the line. I’ll take them but avoid this game.
• Houston Texans (+7.5) @ Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)
  • I suspect that this line is an overreaction to last week’s game vs. the Raiders and the key injuries of the Texans. The Texans still have one of the best offensive lines in football. They still have an overall good team. 7.5 points is still a lot. I’ll take them but avoid this game. On the experimental side, my system shows that the Ravens are a slight favorite but the money line for the Texans is +310. They have to win less than 1 in 4 times for this to make money which I think they can do.
• Cleveland Browns (+7) @ Oakland Raiders (-7)
  • I show that the Raiders have a small advantage across the board but 7 is a lot of points. I will take the Browns but avoid this game.
• Dallas Cowboys (+7) @ New England Patriots (-7)
  • I have the Cowboys and the Patriots ranked almost dead even, the Cowboys have had 2 weeks to prepare for this game and get healthy, and they are getting 7 points. It’s almost a perfect recipe for a system pick. I’ll take the Cowboys and the points. In addition, the Cowboys are +250 for the money line. I’ll take this as an experimental pick.
• New Orleans Saints (-4) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4)
  • Much like the Raiders game, I show that the Saints have a small advantage across the board. I’ll take them but since it is a road game I’ll avoid this game.
• Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) @ Chicago Bears (-2.5)
  • Here is why I dislike ESPN’s QBR rating. Jay Cutler received a 66.2 rating meaning that 43.8% of the time quarterbacks will play a better game than he did. However, if you watched the game, you would know that he actually played a much better game than this. I think it would be a challenge for almost any QB to play as good of a game as he did let alone a better game 43.8% of the time. It’s ridiculous and he earned a lot of respect this game. Despite this praise, I have the Vikings as a substantial favorite and they are getting points so I will take them as a system pick.
• Miami Dolphins (+7) @ New York Jets (-7)
  • I have the Jets as a solid favorite but 7 points is a lot and Miami has had 2 weeks to game plan. I’ll take the Jets but avoid this game.

Week 5 Results

There were a lot of surprising games this week. Despite losing both a system and experimental bet on the Titans, I still managed to come out slightly ahead for the week thanks to some favorable vigs.

Week 5 Picks

Overall: Giants, Buccaneers, Texans, Jets, Chargers, Saints, Cardinals, Packers, Bengals, Bills, Titans, Chiefs, Lions

Top 5: Bills +3 (+105), Bills/Eagles Over 49.5 (-110), Raiders/Texans Under 49 (-110), Bengals +1 (+105), Titans +3 (EV)

Experimental Bets: Titans +155

System Bets: Bills +3 (+105), Bengals +1 (+105), Titans +3 (EV)

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Game Notes:

• Seattle Seahawks (+10) @ New York Giants (-10)
  • Giants are ranked higher in all 4 facets of my rankings but 10 is a big number. I will take them in a game to avoid.
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) @ San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)
  • I have the Bucs as a slight favorite but home field washes it out. I’ll still take the points but it’s another avoid.
• Oakland Raiders (+6) @ Houston Texans (-6)
  • The Texans are a modest favorite by my rankings. They “win” when on offense and when defending the pass but they “lose” big to the Raiders when it comes to defending the run. I’m going to take the Texans because I could see it being a close 1 TD game but I would still avoid this game given the choice.
• New York Jets (+9.5) @ New England Patriots (-9.5)
  • This will be billed as strength vs. strength, the great Patriots offense vs. the great Jets defense. However, the Jets run defense is living on reputation right now and not results. That being said, 9.5 points is a lot for a rivalry game and when I compare categories, the Jets and Patriots are basically tied for 3 categories with the Patriots winning when they run the ball.  That doesn’t sound like a 9.5 point game to me. So I will take the Jets and avoid this game.
• San Diego Chargers (-4.5) @ Denver Broncos (+4.5)
  • The Chargers should win this game but they have a history of playing down to their opponent’s level. I will take the Chargers but avoid this game.
• New Orleans Saints (-6.5) @ Carolina Panthers (+6.5)
  • Saints should win this game easily but it is a lot of points on the road so I will avoid it.
• Arizona Cardinals (+3) @ Minnesota Vikings (-3)
  • I show the Vikings as having just the slightest of edges so I will take the points but avoid this game.
• Green Bay Packers (-5.5) @ Atlanta Falcons (+5.5)
  • The Packers should win but 5.5 points in an away game is a lot. I will take them but avoid.
• Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5)
  • My rankings give the Bengals the 2^nd greatest advantage for the week (behind the Giants). Huge advantage plus points means a system pick. Lock it up.
• Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Buffalo Bills (+3)
  • My rankings give the Bills a pretty strong advantage (only winning two categories but winning them decisively) plus they are getting points plus they are at home. I’ll take the Bills in a system pick.
• Tennessee Titans (+3.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
  • My system shows the Titans having a strong advantage in all 4 aspects of it ranks plus they are getting points. Sounds like another system pick to me. Also, the money line is +155. Let’s lock that up as well as an experimental pick.
• Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5) @ Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
  • I show the Chiefs are a very small favorite. I’ll take them and the points but avoid this game.
• Chicago Bears (+5.5) @ Detroit Lions (-5.5)
  • Both my system and I like the Lions but I’m not comfortable with the points or the MNF stage so I will take them but avoid this game.

Week 4 Results

Finally a good week and what a week it was. I went 7-0 in system picks. I went 1-2 in experimental bets but these were money line bets so I am pleased with that result. I went 13-3 overall. The three games I lost could have gone either way. After 3 weeks of saying I felt unlucky, I definitely felt lucky this week as quite a few of my picks made big comebacks to cover. Overall, I am very confident and pleased with how things are going.

Week 4 Picks

Overall: Lions, Saints, Redskins, Titans, Bengals, Vikings, Panthers, Texans, Seahawks, Giants, Chargers, Packers, Raiders, Ravens, Buccaneers

Top 5: Saints -7 (-105), Redskins PK (-105), Texans -3.5 (-110), Giants -1 (-110), Ravens -3 (-120)

Experimental Bets: Panthers (+240), Raiders (+175), 49ers (+350)

System Bets: Saints -7 (-105), Redskins PK (-105), Texans -3.5 (-110), Giants -1 (-110), Ravens -3 (-120), Panthers +6.5 (-110), 49ers +9 (-110)

 

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Game Notes:

• Detroit Lions (+1.5) @ Dallas Cowboys (-1.5)
  • Instant reaction: Detroit should win easily. The more I think about it, the more reasons I can come up with to avoid this game. For starters, my system only gives Detroit a slight advantage. Home field probably washes out this advantage. Next, I don’t think Detroit will have any answer for DeMarcus Ware. Does Dallas have enough of an edge with him to eliminate the offensive edge that Detroit has in its passing game? I’m worried the answer is yes. Therefore, I’m picking Detroit in an avoid game. It’s close though.
• New Orleans Saints (-7) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+7)
  • The Saints are the better team in all 4 facets of the game that I rank. They should win and they should win easily. I’ll take the Saints in a system pick. Note: If the weather forecast changes to indicate bad weather, this will become an avoid game.
• San Francisco 49ers (+9) @ Philadelphia Eagles (-9)
  • 9 points is a lot and my rankings favor the 49ers outright. That is enough for me to pick them as a system pick despite a handful of concerns (Vick is on the Eagles, a west coast team traveling to east coast, a must-win for the Eagles, common sense, etc.). Experimentally, I should take the money line (+350) too.
• Washington Redskins (PK) @ St. Louis Rams (PK)
  • Despite the short week, the Redskins should be able to win this game outright. They have a big advantage when they are running the ball and they have a big advantage when St. Louis is passing the ball. I will take Washington in a system pick.
• Tennessee Titans (+1) @ Cleveland Browns (-1)
  • If it weren’t for the Kenny Britt injury, this would be a system pick. However, I am worried that the Titans won’t be the same without him so I will pick them in an avoid game.
• Buffalo Bills (-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (+3)
  • Buffalo is 3-0. They just beat New England who many considered the best team in the league. Cincinnati is 1-2. They have a rookie QB starting.  Their starting running back was just suspended. Easy bet right? Not so fast. My system actually gives Cincinnati the outright advantage. Things like this really make me doubt my system. So I will go against common sense and pick Cincinnati in an avoid game.
• Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5)
  • System has the Vikings winning soundly. I am going to avoid this game though because I wonder if the Vikings are going to fall apart after blowing 3 double digit halftime leads in a row. Minnesota in an avoid game.
• Carolina Panthers (+6.5) @ Chicago Bears (-6.5)
  • My system thinks Carolina has a good advantage. Advantage + points + no obvious red flags equal a system pick. I also think the moneyline (+240) is a good bet. It’s experimental though.
• Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) @ Houston Texans (-3.5)
  • Texans have an advantage in all 4 categories. One has to wonder which Steelers team is going to show up this week but regardless I think they will have no answer for Mario Williams. I am taking Houston with a system pick.
• Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) @ Seattle Seahawks (+4.5)
  • System gives Atlanta an advantage but not large enough to make me pick against points and home field. I’ll take Seattle in an avoid game.
• New York Giants (-1) @ Arizona Cardinals (+1)
  • This is such an obvious pick that it is scary. Giants are Cardinals are close in 3 aspects of the game but when the Giants are running the ball, they should have a sizable advantage. I’ll take the Giants in a system pick.
• Miami Dolphins (+7) @ San Diego Chargers (-7)
  • By all accounts, the Chargers should win this one easily. I’m not as confident that easily with be 7 or more points so I’ll take the Chargers in an avoid pick.
• Denver Broncos (+13) @ Green Bay Packers (-13)
  • Much like the Chargers pick, I expect the Packers to win easily but the amount of points worries me so I will avoid this game. Packers in an avoid.
• New England Patriots (-4) @ Oakland Raiders (+4)
  • Two top 10 offensives vs. two mediocre defenses. I’ll take home field and the points but avoid this game as I will lose a lot of value to variance. The Raiders are probably a good money line bet at +175 but this would be an experimental bet.
• New York Jets (+3) @ Baltimore Ravens (-3)
  • The Ravens have an advantage in 3 of the 4 aspects my system ranks. I will take them in a system pick.
• Indianapolis Colts (+10) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10)
  • Tampa Bay should win. If Kerry Collins were healthy and QB, I’d take Indianapolis and the points in an avoid game. With Curtis Painters as the QB, I’ll take Tampa Bay. I don’t know how to describe the events last week after he came into the game other than to say he was really lucky to have only had one turnover returned for a TD. Tampa Bay in an avoid game.

Ranking System

This is the second week that I have referred to ranking during my picks. I have “upgraded” my system.

Previously, I had been focusing on “fundamental truths” of teams. For example, in week 1 I picked Kansas City to cover against Buffalo since Kansas City’s fundamental truth was that they ran the ball really well and Buffalo’s was they defended the run very poorly. It was an experimental bet since it was week 1 and I was using information on last year’s teams to base my prediction. Now we are 3 weeks in and have some data on this year’s teams available. I upgraded my system by replacing the observational truths for each team with 4 home grown statistical rankings: Offensive Pass Rank, Defensive Pass Rank, Offensive Rush Rank, and Defensive Rush Rank. I then compare how Team A’s Offensive Pass Rank matches up with Team B’s Defensive Pass Rank, how Team B’s Offensive Pass Rank matches up with Team A’s Defensive Pass Rank, etc. There are some very important variables currently being left out (strength of schedule, special teams, etc) and I hope to devise a way to incorporate them effectively.

Week 3 Results

Another week. More disappointment. I went 2-3. I actually can’t complain too much. Kenny Britt got hurt. I think that pick would have turned out correct if his knee doesn’t die. I watched the Lions game. I think they cover more often than not as they played absolutely terrible for half the game. That just leaves the Seattle-Arizona game as a head-scratcher. I don’t know what to say about that one.

Week 3 Picks

Overall: 49ers, Bills, Texans, Browns, Titans, Lions, Panthers, Chiefs, Raiders, Ravens, Falcons, Cardinals, Packers, Colts

Top 5: Patriots/Bills Over 53.5 (-110), Titans-7 (-110), Lions -3.5 (-110), Ravens -3.5 (-110), Cardinals -3.5 (-110)

Experimental Bets: None this week.

System Bets: Patriots/Bills Over 53.5 (-110), Titans-7 (-110), Lions -3.5 (-110), Ravens -3.5 (-110), Cardinals -3.5 (-110)

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Game Notes:

• San Francisco 49ers (+2.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
  • Two bad teams. The only significant advantage I see is that San Francisco appears to be good at stopping the run while the Bengals are just an average team at stopping the run. I’ll take this advantage and the points in an avoid game.
• New England Patriots (-8) @ Buffalo Bills (+8)
• No one is surprised that New England is 2-0 but a lot of people are surprised that Buffalo is. I have NE as the #1 passing team and #5 rushing team in the NFL. They are absolutely dominant on offense. However, their defense still is a work in progress. Buffalo is very similar in that they have good passing and rushing ranks but terrible defensive ranks. I’ll take home field and the points in an avoid game. I like over 53.5 for this game as neither defense appears very good at stopping anyone.
• Houston Texans (+4) @ New Orleans Saints (-4)
• My gut reaction is to avoid this game but take the Saints because I consider them the better team. However, when I fed this game into my ranking system, I was blown away by the fact it lists Houston as an overwhelming favorite. It lists the passing matchups as more or less a wash but the Texans have a major advantage in both running the ball and defending the run. I have a feeling that this advantage will disappear as the sample size increases but it was still pretty shocking. I am still going to avoid this game but I will go with Houston instead of my gut.
• New York Giants (NA) @ Philadelphia Eagles (NA)
• Miami Dolphins (+2.5) @ Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
• Here is another game where my system shows one team to be the overwhelming favorite but I am pretty sure it is a symptom of sample size. Miami has faced a top 10 team in both of its games (#1 and #5 teams by my rankings) while Cleveland has faced the #11 and #26 teams by my rankings. I’ll stick with my system and take Cleveland but I’m going to avoid this game.
• Denver Broncos (+7) @ Tennessee Titans (-7)
• I was very impressed with Tennessee’s win last week and overall I like their team. I think they will come down and finish in the middle of the pack but you can’t argue with what they have done so far. Similarly, you can’t argue with what Denver has (hasn’t) done either. I also show that Tennessee in all major offensive and defensive categories that I rank. So I am going to go with Tennessee as a system pick.
• Detroit Lions (-3.5) @ Minnesota Vikings (+3.5)
• Gut reaction is that this is an easy Lions victory. The scariest thing is that the Lions haven’t been favored in Minnesota in exactly 30 years. My system shows that Detroit has a huge advantage in the passing game while Minnesota has a slight advantage in the running game. Detroit has a 13 rank advantage when passing the ball and a 25 rank advantage when defending the pass vs. Minnesota having a 6 rank advantage running the ball and a 1 rank advantage defending the run. This seems to confirm what my gut is saying. Therefore, going with the Lions in a system pick.
• Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) @ Carolina Panthers (-3.5)
• Despite throwing for 400+ yards again, Cam Newton made the rookie mistakes I expected last week. I expect this to be the way throughout the season. I was pleased to see that my rankings also aren’t high on the Panthers passing offense (#20). However, Jacksonville is terrible and I have them as #29 overall. My system has Carolina as a slight favorite and I agree so I will pick them in an avoid game.
• Kansas City Chiefs (+14.5) @ San Diego Chargers (-14.5)
• KC’s season is already over as they have suffered injuries to numerous key players and they have been blown out of the first two games. San Diego is playing like the typical slow starter that they are. My system gives SD the edge but not by a wide margin and 14.5 is a lot of points to give. I’ll take KC in an avoid.
• New York Jets (-3.5) @ Oakland Raiders (+3.5)
• Oakland is 1-1 (both close games) against teams that should be a lot worse than the Jets. However, points and home field is a tempting combination. Add in that my system favors them (SSL) and I’ll take the Raiders in yet another avoid.
• Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) @ St. Louis Rams (+3.5)
• Another tempting home field and points combination. However, unlike the Raiders game, both my gut and my system see the Ravens winning this game easily. I’ll go with the Ravens in a system pick.
• Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5)
• Two Jekyll and Hyde teams. I have no idea which version of each team will show up this week so I’m going to avoid this pick. My system has them ranked dead even. I’ll take the points in an avoid game.
• Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) @ Seattle Seahawks (+3.5)
• Just like the Ravens game, my gut and system override the home field points combination. I show Arizona having an edge is all facets of offense and defense so I will take them as a system pick.
• Green Bay Packers (-3.5) @ Chicago Bears (+3.5)
• My system likes the Packers a lot (advantage in all 4 rankings) but I am going to avoid the rivalry game. Since I have to pick, I’ll go with GB who is clearly the better team but would not be shocked if Chicago surprised everyone.
• Pittsburgh Steelers (-10.5) @ Indianapolis Colts (+10.5)
• Home field + 10.5 points tells me to stay away from this game. My system says its close but I think its biased since half the sample size is Pittsburgh’s blowout loss to Baltimore. I’ll take Indianapolis in an avoid game. I’ll also note that my gut says Pittsburgh will win easily.
• Washington Redskins (NA) @ Dallas Cowboys (NA)

Week 2 Results

I’m not off to a good start here. I went 1-1 in my system bets. I got the over wrong for NO/Chi thanks in no small part to Cutler’s 42% completion percentage and to 5 field goals (only one of which needed to be a touchdown for a push). I then went 1-2-1 in my experimental bets. I feel pretty good about all of them except the Baltimore loss. I am still not quite sure what happened with that game.