Week 14 Picks

December 8, 2011 Leave a comment

Overall: Browns, Colts, Texans, Packers, Jets, Vikings, Titans, Dolphins, Redskins, Panthers, Buccaneers, 49ers, Broncos, Bills, Giants, Seahawks

Top 5: Browns +14 (-110), Texans +1.5 (+115), 49ers -3.5 (-110), Bills +7 (-115), Buccaneers -1

Experimental Bets: Bills moneyline (+250), Giants moneyline (+155)

System Bets: Browns +14 (-110), Texans +1.5 (+115), 49ers -3.5 (-110), Bills +7 (-115)

 

 

Game Notes:

  • Cleveland Browns (+14) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-14)
    • Both systems agree that the Steelers should be a huge favorite and they are. In system 1.0, huge home favorites only won by more than 14 points about 25% of the time this year so I will take the Browns with a system pick.
  • Indianapolis Colts (+16) @ Baltimore Ravens (-16)
    • Neither of my systems has ever shown a gap between teams as great as the gap between the Ravens and the Colts. Yet, as with the Steelers, huge home favorites have only won by more than 14 points about 25% of the time this year. I will take the Colts and avoid this game. My gut tells me that this will be part of that 25%.
  • Houston Texans (+1.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5)
    • My systems show the Texans are better than the Bengals by roughly the same amount that the Steelers are better than the Browns yet the Steelers are 14 point favorites and the Texans are 1.5 underdogs. Now some of this difference is due to the fact that the Texans are on the road and some of it is due to the Texans starting an unproven QB, but I don’t think that those are big enough factors to not pick the Texans this week. I’ll take the Texans with a system pick.
  • Oakland Raiders (+10.5) @ Green Bay Packers (-10.5)
    • Time for my weekly tale of two systems. Once again, system 1.0 doesn’t like the Packers and this week has them as basically even with the Raiders. Once again, system 2.0 loves the Packers and has them as a large favorite. I think system 2.0 is a better system so I will take the Packers but I will avoid this game.
  • Kansas City Chiefs (+9) @ New York Jets (-9)
    • Both systems agree that the Jets are a huge favorite but a line of 9 points is roughly a coin flip. Normally I take the points in these situations but the QB uncertainty pushes me to take the Jets in a game to avoid.
  • Minnesota Vikings (+7) @ Detroit Lions (-7)
    • Both systems rank the Lions favorably but not enough to cover a large percent of the time. I’ll take the Vikings and avoid.
  • New Orleans Saints (-3.5) @ Tennessee Titans (+3.5)
    • System 1.0 shows the Saints as a small favorite and covering approximately 46% of the time. System 2.0 agrees. Therefore I’ll take the Titans by the slightest of margins and avoid this game.
  • Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ Miami Dolphins (-3)
    • There is a chance of rain on Sunday for this game. Michael Vick is coming back. Both systems predict the Dolphins covering 3 points roughly 50% of the time. I’m going to take the Dolphins but avoid.
  • New England Patriots (-8) @ Washington Redskins (+8)
    • Both systems agree that the Patriots are large favorites and predict they will cover roughly 50% of the time. I’ll take the Redskins and the points and avoid this game.
  • Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) @ Carolina Panthers (+2.5)
    • The Panthers’ placed a couple defensive linemen on injured reserve this week. They already had a defense ranked near the bottom of the league so I’m not sure how much of an impact this will really have. It could be a case of “it can’t get much worse”. That being said, both of my systems have the Falcons as a small favorite that covers about half the time. Therefore I’ll take the Panthers with the points and home field and avoid this game.
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+1)
    • System 1.0 has the Jaguars and Bucs as even while System 2.0 has the Bucs as a solid favorite. I’ll go with the Bucs but avoid.
  • San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) @ Arizona Cardinals (+3.5)
    • Both systems have the 49ers as a huge favorite and similarly ranked teams have had the favorite cover about 58% of the time this season. I’ll take the 49ers here with a system pick.
  • Chicago Bears (+3.5) @ Denver Broncos (-3.5)
    • If healthy, Chicago would be a favorite here. Of course, they aren’t healthy nor a favorite. So here is the question. Do Cutler and Forte mean so much to Chicago that they should go from a small favorite to a small underdog? My guess is yes but since it is a guess I will avoid this game.
  • Buffalo Bills (+7) @ San Diego Chargers (-7)
    • Dear sports world, you know the Chargers aren’t very good right? Nope? Good for me. Bills. System Pick. Lock it up. Bills moneyline. Experimental pick. Lock it up.
  • New York Giants (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys (-3)
    • Both my systems like the Giants here. I’ll take them with a system pick. I will also take the Giants moneyline with an experimental pick.
  • St. Louis Rams (+6) @ Seattle Seahawks (-6)
    • Both of my systems agree that Seattle is the favorite but not by a lot. However, they don’t factor in that the Rams are probably going to start a quarterback who has never taken an NFL snap. That will nudge the pick over to the Seahawks but I will avoid this game.
Categories: NFL Picks

Week 13 Results

December 6, 2011 Leave a comment

I went 2-2 in system picks and 0-1 in experimental picks this week. Cincinnati getting blown out really hurt me. For the season I am now 102-80 overall, 39-21 system, and 8-15 experimental. The 8-15 is misleading because a lot of those picks are longshots. I’d be up a small amount of money in that category once you factor in the size of the winnings.

Categories: NFL Picks

Week 13 Picks

December 2, 2011 Leave a comment

I forgot to post these yesterday but it wouldn’t have mattered since the Eagles weren’t a system pick.

 

Overall: Eagles, Titans, Chiefs, Raiders, Bengals, Ravens, Jets, Falcons, Panthers, Saints, Broncos, 49ers, Cowboys, Giants, Colts, Chargers

Top 5: Titans PK (+105), Bengals +6.5 (-110), Panthers +3 (+110), Cowboys -4.5 (-110), Bears/Chiefs Under 36.5 (-110)

Experimental Bets: Bengals moneyline (+239)

System Bets: Titans PK (+105), Bengals +6.5 (-110), Panthers +3 (+110), Cowboys -4.5 (-110)

 

 

Game Notes:

  • Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Seattle Seahawks (+3)
    • Both systems agree that the Eagles should be a slight favorite. I’ll take them and avoid this game because they have a propensity to beat themselves.
  • Tennessee Titans (PK) @ Buffalo Bills (PK)
    • Both systems agree that the Titans are a solid favorite. I’ll take them with a system pick. If I were in Vegas, I’d look around for the best moneylines here.
  • Kansas City Chiefs (+7) @ Chicago Bears (-7)
    • Both systems agree that under normal circumstances, this would be the Bears with an easy win. However, this game is going to be played under anything but normal circumstances. The Chicago Bears are in week 2 of the Hanie experiment and the Chiefs are trying to decide if they want the Orton Experience or the Palko Rollercoaster. Add in some potential for wind/rain/snow in Chicago over the weekend and we have a classic no pick. I’ll go against the numbers and take the Chiefs but avoid this game.
  • Oakland Raiders (+2.5) @ Miami Dolphins (-2.5)
    • My systems agree that these teams are closely matched but disagree as to which one has the slight edge. In coin flip games, I take the points and avoid.
  • Cincinnati Bengals (+6.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)
    • I really wish this spread was 7 and not 6.5. It won’t change my pick but there is a very good chance this will end up a 7 point game. That being said, these teams are too closely matched for one to be giving the other 6.5 points. I’ll take the Bengals in a system pick and I’ll take the Bengals moneyline (+239) in an experimental pick.
  • Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) @ Cleveland Browns (+6.5)
    • Week 1, Ravens beat Steelers then, week 2, Ravens (-5.5 @ Titans) lose. Week 6, Ravens beat Texans then, week 7, Ravens (-7.5 @ Jaguars) lose. Week 9, Ravens beat Steelers then, week 10, Ravens (-6.5 @ Seahawks) lose. Week 12, Ravens beat 49ers then, week 13, Ravens beat 49ers then, week 14, Ravens (-6.5 @ Browns) lose? Probably not but I see enough of a pattern here to avoid this game. Ravens and avoid.
  • New York Jets (-3) @ Washington Redskins (+3)
    • Tough game to pick. Both of my systems rank the Jets as solid favorites but when you factor in home field it becomes a very good spread. I’ll take the Jets and avoid this game.
  • Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) @ Houston Texans (+1.5)
    • This is a tricky game. The Texans have lost their top two quarterbacks for the season in the past two weeks and are starting a rookie QB who was drafted in the 5th round. Both teams are playoff teams. Seems like I should pick Atlanta giving only 1.5 points. Then I start thinking about how well-rounded the Texans are and how overrated the Falcons are. I start thinking about little information there is for the Falcons about how the Texans are going to use Yates. I start listening to the creeping thought that the Texans are going to surprise everyone and win this game. They might even win handily. I have to take the Falcons but I’m going to avoid this game and if the moneyline moves to +200ish (currently +127) for the Texans I will be taking that in an experimental bet.
  • Carolina Panthers (+3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
    • Both systems rank the Panthers as a pretty solid favorite in this game and they are getting points and favorable juice. Easy system pick.
  • Detroit Lions (+8.5) @ New Orleans Saints (-8.5)
    • The numbers say the Saints are the favorite but 8.5 is too many points. The numbers don’t tell you that the Lions are probably starting a running back who lost his job two weeks ago to a back off the street and is only starting because that running back got hurt again. They don’t tell you that the Lions secondary is so injury riddled that they were playing a wide receiver at cornerback. They don’t tell you about all the turmoil surrounding the Lions after one of their franchise players lost it and stomped on a dude. They don’t tell you to pick the Saints but I will. Saints but avoid this pick if you can.
  • Denver Broncos (+1) @ Minnesota Vikings (-1)
    • My systems have this game as a virtual coinflip but they don’t know that Adrian Peterson is banged up. I’ll take the Broncos and the points and avoid this game.
  • St. Louis Rams (+13) @ San Francisco 49ers (-13)
    • The 49ers should blow them out. The only reason I am going to avoid is that I hate giving 13 points.
  • Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) @ Arizona Cardinals (+4.5)
    • My systems favor the Cowboys and the 49ers similarly. Is home field worth 8.5 points to the Cardinals? I am thinking not. I’ll take the Cowboys with a system pick.
  • Green Bay Packers (-7) @ New York Giants (+7)
    • This is almost the exact same situation as the Packers/Lions game last week. My old system likes the Giants and my new system likes the Packers. I’m going to take the Giants (points, home field, system 1.0) and avoid this game (system 2.0, Giants struggling lately).
  • Indianapolis Colts (+20) @ New England Patriots (-20)
    • What is this? College? I’m going to take the Colts strictly on the number of points. I will also avoid this game because it is easily conceivable that they lose by more than 20.
  • San Diego Chargers (-1.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5)
    • My systems agree with the line that the Chargers should be a slight favorite. Add the fact that the Jaguars fired their head coach this week and I’ll take the Chargers but avoid this game.
Categories: NFL Picks

Week 12 Results

November 30, 2011 Leave a comment

Last week was a pretty good week. I went 10-5 overall, 3-2 in system bets, and 1-1 in experimental bets. The Giants killed me. 2 of my 3 losses were on them.

Categories: NFL Picks

Week 12 Picks

November 23, 2011 Leave a comment

Overall: Lions, Dolphins, 49ers, Rams, Bills, Bengals, Texans, Panthers, Titans, Falcons, Raiders, Redskins, Patriots, Broncos, Steelers, Giants

Top 5: 49ers +3 (+105), Panthers -3.5 (-105), Broncos +6.5 (-110), Giants +7 (-110), Dolphins +7 (-115)

Experimental Bets: Broncos moneyline (+230), Giants moneyline (+250)

System Bets: 49ers +3 (+105), Panthers -3.5 (-105), Broncos +6.5 (-110), Giants +7 (-110), Dolphins +7 (-115)

 

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Game Notes:

  • Green Bay Packers (-6) @ Detroit Lions (+6)
    • Gut vs. System 1.0 vs. freshly minted System 2.0 vs. Heart = AVOID THIS GAME. My gut has this sinking feeling that Detroit is going to play them close but Green Bay will pull away at the end and cover. System 1.0 actually has Detroit favored and covering at least 67% of the time. My heart is pulling for Detroit. But I just upgraded to System 2.0 and this has Green Bay as a solid favorite. I will take Detroit and the points but I will avoid this game.
  • Miami Dolphins (+7) @ Dallas Cowboys (-7)
    • System 1.0 has the Cowboys as a solid favorite but Miami covering or pushing 71% of the time. System 2.0 has the Cowboys as a very slight favorite. Both systems agree so I will take Miami as a system pick.
  • San Francisco 49ers (+3) @ Baltimore Ravens (-3)
    • Both systems have San Francisco as a slight favorite. Add in some favorable juice and we have a system pick.
  • Arizona Cardinals (NA) @ St. Louis Rams (NA)
    • My systems agree that this is almost a coin toss but this game is off the board currently. However, I would take the points if it were available.
  • Buffalo Bills (+8) @ New York Jets (-8)
    • Two teams that are both going the wrong direction. I show the Jets are a slight favorite so I will take the points but avoid this game.
  • Cleveland Browns (+7.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)
    • System 1.0 has the Bengals as a solid favorite and System 2.0 has the Bengals as an even bigger favorite. I’ll take them but avoid this game as 7.5 is a lot of points.
  • Houston Texans (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+3)
    • Both my systems have the Texans as huge favorites. However, they do not account for the loss of Matt Schaub for the Texans. I’ll take them but avoid this game.
  • Carolina Panthers (-3.5) @ Indianapolis Colts (+3.5)
    • Both systems have the Panthers as a large favorite and they are getting favorable juice so I will take them with a system pick.
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
    • My gut reaction says to take the Bucs but System 1.0 has them as a large favorite and covering about 63% of the time. System 2.0 agrees. I’ll take the Titans but avoid due to unfavorable juice.
  • Minnesota Vikings (+9.5) @ Atlanta Falcons (-9.5)
    • Will Adrian Peterson play and if so, will he be effective? It’s tough to pick this game without knowing that. If the answers are yes, both systems like the Vikings to cover but not by much. With the possibility that the answers being no, I’ll take the Falcons and avoid this game.
  • Chicago Bears (+4) @ Oakland Raiders (-4)
    • My systems love the Bears here but the injury to Jay Cutler renders them useless in this game. I’ll take the healthier Raiders and home field and avoid this game.
  • Washington Redskins (+3.5) @ Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
    • Both systems have the Redskins as small favorites. I’ll take them and the points but avoid this game.
  • New England Patriots (-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (+3)
    • System 1.0 has the Patriots as a small favorite and System 2.0 has the Patriots as a sizable favorite. I will take the Patriots but will avoid this game because, as I said last week, the Eagles can beat anyone when they aren’t too busy beating themselves.
  • Denver Broncos (+6.5) @ San Diego Chargers (-6.5)
    • Both of my systems think that Denver is a solid favorite in this game and they are getting a lot of points. This is a no brainer. On top of that, the moneyline is +230. Another no brainer.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (-10.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (+10.5)
    • What did we learn from Monday Night Football this week? As my coworker said, Palko looks like a right-hander who is trying to throw leftie. That doesn’t bode well for the Chiefs moving forward. Both my systems like the Steelers, not necessarily by this many points, but they also haven’t watched Palko play. I’ll take the Steelers and avoid this game.
  • New York Giants (+7) @ New Orleans Saints (-7)
    • Both my systems agree that the Giants should be favored in this game. Getting 7 points makes this a ridiculously easy system pick. In addition, the moneyline is +250. Another ridiculously easy pick. Now let’s all go watch the Saints win by 30.
Categories: NFL Picks

Week 11 Results

November 22, 2011 Leave a comment

I screwed up last week and said I was taking the Patriots when in reality I took the Chiefs. It was an avoid game though so it doesn’t matter too much. Overall I was 6-7-1. I went 1-1-1 in system picks and 0-1 in experimental picks. The Bills killed my picks for the week as I had an experimental and a system bet with them.

Categories: NFL Picks

Week 11 Picks

November 17, 2011 Leave a comment

Overall: Broncos, Titans, Bills, Bengals, Browns, Raiders, Panthers, Buccaneers, Cowboys, 49ers, Seahawks, Chargers, Giants, Patriots

Top 5: Bills +1 (+105), Bengals +7 (-110), Browns PK (EV), Bengals/Ravens Under 40.5 (-110), Panthers/Lions Under 47 (-110)

Experimental Bets: Bengals moneyline (+250)

System Bets: Bills +1 (+105), Bengals +7 (-110), Browns PK (EV)

 

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Game Notes:

  • New York Jets (-4.5) @ Denver Broncos (+4.5)
    • This is a game that I would normally take the Jets and avoid because my ranks and the spread match up closely. However, my rankings don’t consider things like home field advantage and when similarly ranked teams have played this season, the road favorite has only covered the 4.5 points about 1/3 of the time. Add to that the short week for the Jets and I’ll take the Broncos but avoid this game.
  • Tennessee Titans (+5.5) @ Atlanta Falcons (-5.5)
    • I show the Falcons as a small favorite but not a 5.5 favorite. I’ll take the Titans but avoid this game.
  • Buffalo Bills (+1) @ Miami Dolphins (-1)
    • I’m still drinking the Bills’ Kool-Aid and avoiding the Dolphins’. I’ll take them in a system pick.
  • Cincinnati Bengals (+7) @ Baltimore Ravens (-7)
    • My system has the Ravens as a small favorite so I’ll take the Bengals in a system pick. 7 points is a lot for a small favorite to lay. In addition, I’ll take the Bengals moneyline for my experimental pick.
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (PK) @ Cleveland Browns (PK)
    • I love the Browns here. They are at home, getting favorable juice, and my system likes them.
  • Oakland Raiders (PK) @ Minnesota Vikings (PK)
    • My system has the Raiders are a small favorite. Being on the road negates most of that so I’ll take the Raiders but avoid this game.
  • Carolina Panthers (+7) @ Detroit Lions (-7)
    • Injuries to both QBs almost instantly guarantee that I will avoid this game. The Lions are giving up a lot of points so I’ll take the Panthers and avoid this game.
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+14) @ Green Bay Packers (-14)
    • The Packers are heavy favorites rightfully but 14 is a lot of points. I’ll take the Bucs and avoid.
  • Dallas Cowboys (-7.5) @ Washington Redskins (+7.5)
    • My system shows the Cowboys should be a heavy favorite and they are. I’ll take them but avoid this game since it is a lot of point.
  • Arizona Cardinals (+9.5) @ San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)
    • I’ll take the 49ers who are a heavy system favorite but avoid this game due to the amount of points laid.
  • Seattle Seahawks (+1) @ St. Louis Rams (-1)
    • My system shows that the Seahawks are a small favorite. I’ll take them but avoid this game.
  • San Diego Chargers (+3.5) @ Chicago Bears (-3.5)
    • Despite the hype and win streak, my system is still not very high on the Bears (#18 overall). It still favors them over the Chargers but with the points it becomes almost a coin flip. I’ll take the Chargers and avoid this game.
  • Philadelphia Eagles (+5.5) @ New York Giants (-5.5)
    • My system favors the Giants giving up 5.5. I’ll take them but avoid this game because the Eagles can beat anyone when they aren’t too busy beating themselves.
  • Kansas City Chiefs (+14.5) @ New England Patriots (-14.5)
    • The Chiefs offense is a mess but 14.5 points is a lot. I’ll take the Chiefs and avoid this game.
Categories: NFL Picks
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