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Week 17 Picks

Overall: Eagles, Jaguars, Jets, Patriots, Rams, Bears, Lions, Panthers, Texans, Buccaneers, Chargers, Broncos, Seahawks, Ravens, Browns, Giants

Experimental Bets: Panthers/Saints Over 55 (-110), Texans moneyline (+140), Chargers moneyline (+140), Seahawks moneyline (+125), Ravens moneyline (-125)

System Bets: Jets PK (+105), Bears PK (EV), Chargers +3 (-105), Seahawks +2.5 (EV), Ravens -1 (-120)

 

Game Notes:

  • Washington Redskins (+8.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5)
    • Both my systems show the Eagles as large favorites but only covering a line this large about 52% of the time. I’ll take the Eagles and avoid this game.
  • Indianapolis Colts (+3.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5)
    • Another game that is close. System 1 shows the Jaguars covering 54% of the time so I will take them and avoid.
  • New York Jets(PK) @ Miami Dolphins (PK)
    • Both of my systems show the Jets are the favorites but disagree on scale. Either way, this is a good system pick especially since I am getting favorable juice (+105).
  • Buffalo Bills (+11) @ New England Patriots (-11)
    • Systems predict the Patriots cover almost exactly 50% of the time. I’d normally take the points but I don’t think the Patriots will take any chances with the number one seed on the line. Patriots and avoid.
  • San Francisco 49ers (-10.5) @ St. Louis Rams (+10.5)
    • The 49ers have a lot to play for and the Rams are terrible but the fact is simply that large road favorites aren’t covering those big spreads very often. I’ll take the points and avoid this game.
  • Chicago Bears (PK) @ Minnesota Vikings (PK)
    • Both systems agree that the Bears are the favorite in this game. Add that the Bears looked much better with McCown as their QB last week, the Vikings just lost Adrian Peterson to injury again, and some favorable juice and we are looking at a very tasty system pick.
  • Detroit Lions (-3) @ Green Bay Packers (+3)
    • It’s hard to be objective because I am a Lions fan but there are a lot of outside variables in this game. Ultimately I will take the Lions because in my opinion weather + resting + both teams best interest > Packers skill advantage; however, I will avoid this game.
  • Carolina Panthers (+8.5) @ New Orleans Saints (-8.5)
    • My systems show the Saints covering slightly more than 50% of the time. I’m going to flip the pick because there is a chance that the Saints see the 49ers winning in a blowout and start resting players towards the end of the game.  I will avoid because of that too. I really like Over 55 points as an experimental pick.
  • Tennessee Titans (-2.5) @ Houston Texans (+2.5)
    • My systems say the Texans are heavy favorites. However, it is a meaningless game in terms of playoff seeding to them and supposedly they are going to rest players. I personally think they don’t want to limp into the playoffs with three straight losses and are going to show up for this game. I’ll take them and avoid this game and I’ll take the moneyline +140 as an experimental pick.
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+11.5) @ Atlanta Falcons (-11.5)
    • My systems say this is 50/50. The Falcons may have nothing to play for and 11.5 is a lot of points so I’ll take the Bucs and avoid.
  • San Diego Chargers (+3) @ Oakland Raiders (-3)
    • Both of my systems agree that the Chargers are the favorite and they are getting points and favorable juice so it’s a good system pick. In addition, the moneyline +140 is tempting.
  • Kansas City Chiefs (+3) @ Denver Broncos (-3)
    • My systems don’t agree on this game and I can’t make up my mind about it. I’m going to go with Denver because this game means more to them but I will avoid this game.
  • Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) @ Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)
    • Both systems show the Seahawks as heavy favorites. Add in favorable juice and points and we got a great system pick. In addition, +125 for the moneyline is a good experimental bet.
  • Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5)
    • Both systems show the Ravens as heavy favorites and it is a must win game for them. I have them at -2.5 in one league and -1 (-120) in the other. These seem like good system picks to me. In addition, the -125 moneyline is a good experimental pick. The Ravens have to win 5 out of 9 to break even on that bet for me.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) @ Cleveland Browns (+7)
    • Both systems show the Steelers covering about 60% of the time but with the potential of resting players late in the game and bad weather, I’ll take the points and avoid this game.
  • Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) @ New York Giants (-2.5)
    • Both systems say the Giants cover slightly more than 50%. I’ll take them but avoid this game due to some unfavorable juice.
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