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Week 16 Picks

Overall: Texans, Raiders, Broncos, Titans, Bengals, Dolphins, Ravens, Giants, Vikings, Panthers, Rams, Lions, 49ers, Cowboys, Bears, Falcons

Top 5: (Getting rid of this. It is meaningless.)

Experimental Bets: Raiders moneyline (+120), Vikings moneyline (+250)

System Bets: Texans -5.5 (-110), Raiders PK (+105), Bengals -4 (-110), Vikings +6.5 (-110), Falcons +6.5 (-110)



Game Notes:

  • Houston Texans (-5.5) @ Indianapolis Colts (+5.5)
    • Let this sink in. The Texans are still better than the Colts in pass offense, pass defense, rush offense, rush defense, kicking, punting, kick returning, and punt returning. I know system 1 says similarly ranked teams only over 50 something percent of the time but I’m willing to bet the Texans raise that average. Texans system bet.
  • Oakland Raiders (PK) @ Kansas City Chiefs (PK)
    • Both systems have the Raiders as the better team and they are getting favorable juice. That’s a good recipe for a system pick. The Raiders moneyline is +120. That’s a good experimental pick.
  • Denver Broncos (-3) @ Buffalo Bills (+3)
    • Both systems agree that the Broncos are a slight favorite. Enough to cover 3 points? Probably but there are going to be a lot of pushes plus it kills me to take the Bills yet again. Luckily I can pick the Broncos half of the coin flip and avoid this game.
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) @ Tennessee Titans (-7.5)
    • I hate this line. I would not be surprised at all if Jacksonville won this game. However, both systems say to go Titans so I will and I will avoid.
  • Arizona Cardinals (+4) @ Cincinnati Bengals (-4)
    • Both systems agree that the Bengals are the way to go. I’ll take them in a system bet.
  • Miami Dolphins (+9.5) @ New England Patriots (-9.5)
    • System 1.0 says to take the Dolphins but System 2.0 says to take the Patriots. I’ll take the points and avoid this game.
  • Cleveland Browns (+13) @ Baltimore Ravens (-13)
    • Both systems say to pick the Ravens but barely so I will avoid this game.
  • New York Giants (+3) @ New York Jets (-3)
    • Another game where my systems differ so I will go with the Giants and avoid.
  • Minnesota Vikings (+6.5) @ Washington Redskins (-6.5)
    • Both systems agree to take the Vikings so I will. In addition, the Vikings are +250 so I’ll take their moneyline.
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5) @ Carolina Panthers (-7.5)
    • Both systems say to take the Panthers but I don’t trust them so I will avoid this game.
  • St. Louis Rams (+17) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-17)
    • Huge home favorites have only covered spreads larger than 14 27% of the time this season. So this would probably be a system bet on the Rams. However, it is off the board on the online sports books and only available via one of my leagues so I am forced to avoid.
  • San Diego Chargers (+2.5) @ Detroit Lions (-2.5)
    • Both systems have the Lions as a slight favorite with home field tipping the pick to them. It is close though so I will avoid this game.
  • San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) @ Seattle Seahawks (+1.5)
    • Seattle is on a bit of a roll but the smart money is on the 49ers. I’d take them with a system pick if the juice wasn’t -130.
  • Philadelphia Eagles (+2) @ Dallas Cowboys (-2)
    • The systems say to pick Dallas. As usual I will avoid this game because the Eagles can beat anyone when they aren’t too busy beating themselves.
  • Chicago Bears (+13) @ Green Bay Packers (-13)
    • I’d love to take the Packers in this game but I don’t want to give up 13 points with the potential of bad weather and against a division rival. I’ll take the Bears and avoid.
  • Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) @ New Orleans Saints (-6.5)
    • My heart likes the Saints but my systems like the Falcons. I’ll take them with a system pick.
Categories: NFL Picks
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