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Week 15 Picks

Overall: Falcons, Cowboys, Giants, Packers, Texans, Colts, Chiefs, Bears, Dolphins, Vikings, Rams, Lions, Browns, Patriots, Jets, 49ers

Top 5: Giants -7 (-110), Lions PK (-120), Browns +7 (-110), Jets -1 (+115), Ravens -1.5 (-125)

Experimental Bets: Seahawks moneyline (+170), Jets moneyline (+125)

System Bets: Giants -7 (-110), Lions PK (-120), Browns +7 (-110), Patriots -6 (-110), Jets -1 (+115), Ravens -1.5 (-125)

 

 

Game Notes:

  • Jacksonville Jaguars (+11) @ Atlanta Falcons (-11)
    • What a good line. There are a lot of good lines this week. I’ll take the Falcons as System 1.0 shows them covering 56% of the time but I’ll avoid this game.
  • Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5)
    • Another good line. I’ll take the Cowboys to cover in a must-win game over a team in the Bucs that is falling apart and may have given up on this season. I’m avoiding this game too.
  • Washington Redskins (+7) @ New York Giants (-7)
    • System 1.0 predicts the Giants will cover this about 50% of the time. System 2.0 has the Giants as a large favorite as well. I’ll take them b
  • Green Bay Packers (-14) @ Kansas City Chiefs (+14)
    • A home team getting 14 points is an almost instant pick. I’ll avoid though because I’ll be thoroughly surprised if Green Bay doesn’t at least push here.
  • Carolina Panthers (+6.5) @ Houston Texans (-6.5)
    • Both systems agree that the Texans are large favorites and should cover. I’ll avoid simply because they took another hit this week with the loss of their defensive coordinator to medical leave. Eventually, all these personnel losses are going to bite them.
  • Tennessee Titans (-6.5) @ Indianapolis Colts (+6.5)
    • Both systems project the Titans to be a huge favorite but similar teams in this position have only covered about 50% of the time this season. Add the fact that the Titans might be giving Jake Locker his first start and the pick moves over to Indy. I’ll take the Colts but avoid.
  • Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) @ Chicago Bears (-3.5)
    • If the Bears were healthy, they’d be an easy pick here. But they aren’t. However, my systems have had a few weeks of the Caleb Hanie experience now and still project the Bears. I’ll listen and take the Bears and avoid this game. I will take the Seahawks moneyline (+170) as I think they are the better team right now (healthy QB, healthy RB, won 4 of 5 vs. backup QB, backup RB, and lost 3 straight).
  • Miami Dolphins (-1.5) @ Buffalo Bills (+1.5)
    • System 1.0 has the Dolphins as a significant favorite to win and cover but System 2.0 has them as a much small favorite. I’ll take the Dolphins but avoid this game.
  • New Orleans Saints (-7) @ Minnesota Vikings (+7)
    • System 1.0 says to take the points and home field here. I don’t like it so I’ll take the Vikings and avoid this game.
  • Cincinnati Bengals (-6) @ St. Louis Rams (+6)
    • My systems keep telling me to take the points and home field and the worse team when I think one team is far superior to the other. I’ll take the Rams and avoid this game.
  • Detroit Lions (PK) @ Oakland Raiders (PK)
    • The Lions are the better team. Injuries and home field might help the Raiders in this one but I wouldn’t bet on it. Lions, system pick.
  • Cleveland Browns (+7) @ Arizona Cardinals (-7)
    • Classic overreaction line? Both of my systems have these teams close. I’ll take the Browns with a system pick.
  • New England Patriots (-6) @ Denver Broncos (+6)
    • Both systems agree that I should take the Patriots here and I will with a system pick.
  • New York Jets (+2.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)
    • Both systems agree that the Jets are the better team and should cover a large percentage of the time. I have them as +1 (+115) in one league and +2.5 (-110) in the other. I’ll also take the moneyline (+125) as an experimental pick.
  • Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) @ San Diego Chargers (+2.5)
    • Both systems agree that the Ravens are a large favorite and should cover this about 70% of the time. I’ll take them with a system pick. I have them as -1.5 (-125) in one league and -2.5 (-110) in the other.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) @ San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)
    • My systems don’t agree so I will avoid this game. I will take the 49ers because I think system 2.0 is better than system 1.0 and because Big Ben is beat up.
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