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Week 14 Picks

Overall: Browns, Colts, Texans, Packers, Jets, Vikings, Titans, Dolphins, Redskins, Panthers, Buccaneers, 49ers, Broncos, Bills, Giants, Seahawks

Top 5: Browns +14 (-110), Texans +1.5 (+115), 49ers -3.5 (-110), Bills +7 (-115), Buccaneers -1

Experimental Bets: Bills moneyline (+250), Giants moneyline (+155)

System Bets: Browns +14 (-110), Texans +1.5 (+115), 49ers -3.5 (-110), Bills +7 (-115)

 

 

Game Notes:

  • Cleveland Browns (+14) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-14)
    • Both systems agree that the Steelers should be a huge favorite and they are. In system 1.0, huge home favorites only won by more than 14 points about 25% of the time this year so I will take the Browns with a system pick.
  • Indianapolis Colts (+16) @ Baltimore Ravens (-16)
    • Neither of my systems has ever shown a gap between teams as great as the gap between the Ravens and the Colts. Yet, as with the Steelers, huge home favorites have only won by more than 14 points about 25% of the time this year. I will take the Colts and avoid this game. My gut tells me that this will be part of that 25%.
  • Houston Texans (+1.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5)
    • My systems show the Texans are better than the Bengals by roughly the same amount that the Steelers are better than the Browns yet the Steelers are 14 point favorites and the Texans are 1.5 underdogs. Now some of this difference is due to the fact that the Texans are on the road and some of it is due to the Texans starting an unproven QB, but I don’t think that those are big enough factors to not pick the Texans this week. I’ll take the Texans with a system pick.
  • Oakland Raiders (+10.5) @ Green Bay Packers (-10.5)
    • Time for my weekly tale of two systems. Once again, system 1.0 doesn’t like the Packers and this week has them as basically even with the Raiders. Once again, system 2.0 loves the Packers and has them as a large favorite. I think system 2.0 is a better system so I will take the Packers but I will avoid this game.
  • Kansas City Chiefs (+9) @ New York Jets (-9)
    • Both systems agree that the Jets are a huge favorite but a line of 9 points is roughly a coin flip. Normally I take the points in these situations but the QB uncertainty pushes me to take the Jets in a game to avoid.
  • Minnesota Vikings (+7) @ Detroit Lions (-7)
    • Both systems rank the Lions favorably but not enough to cover a large percent of the time. I’ll take the Vikings and avoid.
  • New Orleans Saints (-3.5) @ Tennessee Titans (+3.5)
    • System 1.0 shows the Saints as a small favorite and covering approximately 46% of the time. System 2.0 agrees. Therefore I’ll take the Titans by the slightest of margins and avoid this game.
  • Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ Miami Dolphins (-3)
    • There is a chance of rain on Sunday for this game. Michael Vick is coming back. Both systems predict the Dolphins covering 3 points roughly 50% of the time. I’m going to take the Dolphins but avoid.
  • New England Patriots (-8) @ Washington Redskins (+8)
    • Both systems agree that the Patriots are large favorites and predict they will cover roughly 50% of the time. I’ll take the Redskins and the points and avoid this game.
  • Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) @ Carolina Panthers (+2.5)
    • The Panthers’ placed a couple defensive linemen on injured reserve this week. They already had a defense ranked near the bottom of the league so I’m not sure how much of an impact this will really have. It could be a case of “it can’t get much worse”. That being said, both of my systems have the Falcons as a small favorite that covers about half the time. Therefore I’ll take the Panthers with the points and home field and avoid this game.
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+1)
    • System 1.0 has the Jaguars and Bucs as even while System 2.0 has the Bucs as a solid favorite. I’ll go with the Bucs but avoid.
  • San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) @ Arizona Cardinals (+3.5)
    • Both systems have the 49ers as a huge favorite and similarly ranked teams have had the favorite cover about 58% of the time this season. I’ll take the 49ers here with a system pick.
  • Chicago Bears (+3.5) @ Denver Broncos (-3.5)
    • If healthy, Chicago would be a favorite here. Of course, they aren’t healthy nor a favorite. So here is the question. Do Cutler and Forte mean so much to Chicago that they should go from a small favorite to a small underdog? My guess is yes but since it is a guess I will avoid this game.
  • Buffalo Bills (+7) @ San Diego Chargers (-7)
    • Dear sports world, you know the Chargers aren’t very good right? Nope? Good for me. Bills. System Pick. Lock it up. Bills moneyline. Experimental pick. Lock it up.
  • New York Giants (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys (-3)
    • Both my systems like the Giants here. I’ll take them with a system pick. I will also take the Giants moneyline with an experimental pick.
  • St. Louis Rams (+6) @ Seattle Seahawks (-6)
    • Both of my systems agree that Seattle is the favorite but not by a lot. However, they don’t factor in that the Rams are probably going to start a quarterback who has never taken an NFL snap. That will nudge the pick over to the Seahawks but I will avoid this game.
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