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Week 13 Picks

I forgot to post these yesterday but it wouldn’t have mattered since the Eagles weren’t a system pick.

 

Overall: Eagles, Titans, Chiefs, Raiders, Bengals, Ravens, Jets, Falcons, Panthers, Saints, Broncos, 49ers, Cowboys, Giants, Colts, Chargers

Top 5: Titans PK (+105), Bengals +6.5 (-110), Panthers +3 (+110), Cowboys -4.5 (-110), Bears/Chiefs Under 36.5 (-110)

Experimental Bets: Bengals moneyline (+239)

System Bets: Titans PK (+105), Bengals +6.5 (-110), Panthers +3 (+110), Cowboys -4.5 (-110)

 

 

Game Notes:

  • Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Seattle Seahawks (+3)
    • Both systems agree that the Eagles should be a slight favorite. I’ll take them and avoid this game because they have a propensity to beat themselves.
  • Tennessee Titans (PK) @ Buffalo Bills (PK)
    • Both systems agree that the Titans are a solid favorite. I’ll take them with a system pick. If I were in Vegas, I’d look around for the best moneylines here.
  • Kansas City Chiefs (+7) @ Chicago Bears (-7)
    • Both systems agree that under normal circumstances, this would be the Bears with an easy win. However, this game is going to be played under anything but normal circumstances. The Chicago Bears are in week 2 of the Hanie experiment and the Chiefs are trying to decide if they want the Orton Experience or the Palko Rollercoaster. Add in some potential for wind/rain/snow in Chicago over the weekend and we have a classic no pick. I’ll go against the numbers and take the Chiefs but avoid this game.
  • Oakland Raiders (+2.5) @ Miami Dolphins (-2.5)
    • My systems agree that these teams are closely matched but disagree as to which one has the slight edge. In coin flip games, I take the points and avoid.
  • Cincinnati Bengals (+6.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)
    • I really wish this spread was 7 and not 6.5. It won’t change my pick but there is a very good chance this will end up a 7 point game. That being said, these teams are too closely matched for one to be giving the other 6.5 points. I’ll take the Bengals in a system pick and I’ll take the Bengals moneyline (+239) in an experimental pick.
  • Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) @ Cleveland Browns (+6.5)
    • Week 1, Ravens beat Steelers then, week 2, Ravens (-5.5 @ Titans) lose. Week 6, Ravens beat Texans then, week 7, Ravens (-7.5 @ Jaguars) lose. Week 9, Ravens beat Steelers then, week 10, Ravens (-6.5 @ Seahawks) lose. Week 12, Ravens beat 49ers then, week 13, Ravens beat 49ers then, week 14, Ravens (-6.5 @ Browns) lose? Probably not but I see enough of a pattern here to avoid this game. Ravens and avoid.
  • New York Jets (-3) @ Washington Redskins (+3)
    • Tough game to pick. Both of my systems rank the Jets as solid favorites but when you factor in home field it becomes a very good spread. I’ll take the Jets and avoid this game.
  • Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) @ Houston Texans (+1.5)
    • This is a tricky game. The Texans have lost their top two quarterbacks for the season in the past two weeks and are starting a rookie QB who was drafted in the 5th round. Both teams are playoff teams. Seems like I should pick Atlanta giving only 1.5 points. Then I start thinking about how well-rounded the Texans are and how overrated the Falcons are. I start thinking about little information there is for the Falcons about how the Texans are going to use Yates. I start listening to the creeping thought that the Texans are going to surprise everyone and win this game. They might even win handily. I have to take the Falcons but I’m going to avoid this game and if the moneyline moves to +200ish (currently +127) for the Texans I will be taking that in an experimental bet.
  • Carolina Panthers (+3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
    • Both systems rank the Panthers as a pretty solid favorite in this game and they are getting points and favorable juice. Easy system pick.
  • Detroit Lions (+8.5) @ New Orleans Saints (-8.5)
    • The numbers say the Saints are the favorite but 8.5 is too many points. The numbers don’t tell you that the Lions are probably starting a running back who lost his job two weeks ago to a back off the street and is only starting because that running back got hurt again. They don’t tell you that the Lions secondary is so injury riddled that they were playing a wide receiver at cornerback. They don’t tell you about all the turmoil surrounding the Lions after one of their franchise players lost it and stomped on a dude. They don’t tell you to pick the Saints but I will. Saints but avoid this pick if you can.
  • Denver Broncos (+1) @ Minnesota Vikings (-1)
    • My systems have this game as a virtual coinflip but they don’t know that Adrian Peterson is banged up. I’ll take the Broncos and the points and avoid this game.
  • St. Louis Rams (+13) @ San Francisco 49ers (-13)
    • The 49ers should blow them out. The only reason I am going to avoid is that I hate giving 13 points.
  • Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) @ Arizona Cardinals (+4.5)
    • My systems favor the Cowboys and the 49ers similarly. Is home field worth 8.5 points to the Cardinals? I am thinking not. I’ll take the Cowboys with a system pick.
  • Green Bay Packers (-7) @ New York Giants (+7)
    • This is almost the exact same situation as the Packers/Lions game last week. My old system likes the Giants and my new system likes the Packers. I’m going to take the Giants (points, home field, system 1.0) and avoid this game (system 2.0, Giants struggling lately).
  • Indianapolis Colts (+20) @ New England Patriots (-20)
    • What is this? College? I’m going to take the Colts strictly on the number of points. I will also avoid this game because it is easily conceivable that they lose by more than 20.
  • San Diego Chargers (-1.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5)
    • My systems agree with the line that the Chargers should be a slight favorite. Add the fact that the Jaguars fired their head coach this week and I’ll take the Chargers but avoid this game.
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