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Week 12 Picks

Overall: Lions, Dolphins, 49ers, Rams, Bills, Bengals, Texans, Panthers, Titans, Falcons, Raiders, Redskins, Patriots, Broncos, Steelers, Giants

Top 5: 49ers +3 (+105), Panthers -3.5 (-105), Broncos +6.5 (-110), Giants +7 (-110), Dolphins +7 (-115)

Experimental Bets: Broncos moneyline (+230), Giants moneyline (+250)

System Bets: 49ers +3 (+105), Panthers -3.5 (-105), Broncos +6.5 (-110), Giants +7 (-110), Dolphins +7 (-115)

 

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Game Notes:

  • Green Bay Packers (-6) @ Detroit Lions (+6)
    • Gut vs. System 1.0 vs. freshly minted System 2.0 vs. Heart = AVOID THIS GAME. My gut has this sinking feeling that Detroit is going to play them close but Green Bay will pull away at the end and cover. System 1.0 actually has Detroit favored and covering at least 67% of the time. My heart is pulling for Detroit. But I just upgraded to System 2.0 and this has Green Bay as a solid favorite. I will take Detroit and the points but I will avoid this game.
  • Miami Dolphins (+7) @ Dallas Cowboys (-7)
    • System 1.0 has the Cowboys as a solid favorite but Miami covering or pushing 71% of the time. System 2.0 has the Cowboys as a very slight favorite. Both systems agree so I will take Miami as a system pick.
  • San Francisco 49ers (+3) @ Baltimore Ravens (-3)
    • Both systems have San Francisco as a slight favorite. Add in some favorable juice and we have a system pick.
  • Arizona Cardinals (NA) @ St. Louis Rams (NA)
    • My systems agree that this is almost a coin toss but this game is off the board currently. However, I would take the points if it were available.
  • Buffalo Bills (+8) @ New York Jets (-8)
    • Two teams that are both going the wrong direction. I show the Jets are a slight favorite so I will take the points but avoid this game.
  • Cleveland Browns (+7.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)
    • System 1.0 has the Bengals as a solid favorite and System 2.0 has the Bengals as an even bigger favorite. I’ll take them but avoid this game as 7.5 is a lot of points.
  • Houston Texans (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+3)
    • Both my systems have the Texans as huge favorites. However, they do not account for the loss of Matt Schaub for the Texans. I’ll take them but avoid this game.
  • Carolina Panthers (-3.5) @ Indianapolis Colts (+3.5)
    • Both systems have the Panthers as a large favorite and they are getting favorable juice so I will take them with a system pick.
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
    • My gut reaction says to take the Bucs but System 1.0 has them as a large favorite and covering about 63% of the time. System 2.0 agrees. I’ll take the Titans but avoid due to unfavorable juice.
  • Minnesota Vikings (+9.5) @ Atlanta Falcons (-9.5)
    • Will Adrian Peterson play and if so, will he be effective? It’s tough to pick this game without knowing that. If the answers are yes, both systems like the Vikings to cover but not by much. With the possibility that the answers being no, I’ll take the Falcons and avoid this game.
  • Chicago Bears (+4) @ Oakland Raiders (-4)
    • My systems love the Bears here but the injury to Jay Cutler renders them useless in this game. I’ll take the healthier Raiders and home field and avoid this game.
  • Washington Redskins (+3.5) @ Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
    • Both systems have the Redskins as small favorites. I’ll take them and the points but avoid this game.
  • New England Patriots (-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (+3)
    • System 1.0 has the Patriots as a small favorite and System 2.0 has the Patriots as a sizable favorite. I will take the Patriots but will avoid this game because, as I said last week, the Eagles can beat anyone when they aren’t too busy beating themselves.
  • Denver Broncos (+6.5) @ San Diego Chargers (-6.5)
    • Both of my systems think that Denver is a solid favorite in this game and they are getting a lot of points. This is a no brainer. On top of that, the moneyline is +230. Another no brainer.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (-10.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (+10.5)
    • What did we learn from Monday Night Football this week? As my coworker said, Palko looks like a right-hander who is trying to throw leftie. That doesn’t bode well for the Chiefs moving forward. Both my systems like the Steelers, not necessarily by this many points, but they also haven’t watched Palko play. I’ll take the Steelers and avoid this game.
  • New York Giants (+7) @ New Orleans Saints (-7)
    • Both my systems agree that the Giants should be favored in this game. Getting 7 points makes this a ridiculously easy system pick. In addition, the moneyline is +250. Another ridiculously easy pick. Now let’s all go watch the Saints win by 30.
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