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Week 11 Picks

Overall: Broncos, Titans, Bills, Bengals, Browns, Raiders, Panthers, Buccaneers, Cowboys, 49ers, Seahawks, Chargers, Giants, Patriots

Top 5: Bills +1 (+105), Bengals +7 (-110), Browns PK (EV), Bengals/Ravens Under 40.5 (-110), Panthers/Lions Under 47 (-110)

Experimental Bets: Bengals moneyline (+250)

System Bets: Bills +1 (+105), Bengals +7 (-110), Browns PK (EV)

 

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Game Notes:

  • New York Jets (-4.5) @ Denver Broncos (+4.5)
    • This is a game that I would normally take the Jets and avoid because my ranks and the spread match up closely. However, my rankings don’t consider things like home field advantage and when similarly ranked teams have played this season, the road favorite has only covered the 4.5 points about 1/3 of the time. Add to that the short week for the Jets and I’ll take the Broncos but avoid this game.
  • Tennessee Titans (+5.5) @ Atlanta Falcons (-5.5)
    • I show the Falcons as a small favorite but not a 5.5 favorite. I’ll take the Titans but avoid this game.
  • Buffalo Bills (+1) @ Miami Dolphins (-1)
    • I’m still drinking the Bills’ Kool-Aid and avoiding the Dolphins’. I’ll take them in a system pick.
  • Cincinnati Bengals (+7) @ Baltimore Ravens (-7)
    • My system has the Ravens as a small favorite so I’ll take the Bengals in a system pick. 7 points is a lot for a small favorite to lay. In addition, I’ll take the Bengals moneyline for my experimental pick.
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (PK) @ Cleveland Browns (PK)
    • I love the Browns here. They are at home, getting favorable juice, and my system likes them.
  • Oakland Raiders (PK) @ Minnesota Vikings (PK)
    • My system has the Raiders are a small favorite. Being on the road negates most of that so I’ll take the Raiders but avoid this game.
  • Carolina Panthers (+7) @ Detroit Lions (-7)
    • Injuries to both QBs almost instantly guarantee that I will avoid this game. The Lions are giving up a lot of points so I’ll take the Panthers and avoid this game.
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+14) @ Green Bay Packers (-14)
    • The Packers are heavy favorites rightfully but 14 is a lot of points. I’ll take the Bucs and avoid.
  • Dallas Cowboys (-7.5) @ Washington Redskins (+7.5)
    • My system shows the Cowboys should be a heavy favorite and they are. I’ll take them but avoid this game since it is a lot of point.
  • Arizona Cardinals (+9.5) @ San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)
    • I’ll take the 49ers who are a heavy system favorite but avoid this game due to the amount of points laid.
  • Seattle Seahawks (+1) @ St. Louis Rams (-1)
    • My system shows that the Seahawks are a small favorite. I’ll take them but avoid this game.
  • San Diego Chargers (+3.5) @ Chicago Bears (-3.5)
    • Despite the hype and win streak, my system is still not very high on the Bears (#18 overall). It still favors them over the Chargers but with the points it becomes almost a coin flip. I’ll take the Chargers and avoid this game.
  • Philadelphia Eagles (+5.5) @ New York Giants (-5.5)
    • My system favors the Giants giving up 5.5. I’ll take them but avoid this game because the Eagles can beat anyone when they aren’t too busy beating themselves.
  • Kansas City Chiefs (+14.5) @ New England Patriots (-14.5)
    • The Chiefs offense is a mess but 14.5 points is a lot. I’ll take the Chiefs and avoid this game.
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Categories: NFL Picks
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