Overall: Raiders, Bengals, Broncos, Colts, Bills, Texans, Titans, Redskins, Falcons, Lions, Browns, Ravens, Giants, Patriots, Vikings

Top 5: Texans -3 (-115), Lions +3 (-120), Browns -2.5 (-115), Patriots PK (+105), Bills +5 (-110)

Experimental Bets: Bills moneyline (+200)

System Bets: Bengals +3 (EV), Bills +5 (-110), Texans -3 (-115), Redskins +4 (-110), Lions +3 (-120), Browns -2.5 (-115), Patriots PK (+105), Vikings +13 (-110)

Game Notes:

  • Oakland Raiders (+7) @ San Diego Chargers (-7)
    • After laying a couple eggs, it is tough to bet on Oakland. Then you remember that San Diego has been laying its own eggs and you take the chicken with the points. I don’t love it the pick but at least my system likes the Raiders. I’ll take them and avoid this game.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (+3)
    • The Bengals are at home, are getting points, are getting favorable juice, and are ranked slightly better. System pick anyone?
  • Denver Broncos (+3) @ Kansas City Chiefs (-3)
    • System gives the Broncos a slight edge so I’ll take them but avoid this battle between two bad teams.
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) @ Indianapolis Colts (+3)
    • I have Jacksonville with a slight edge but home field and points swings the pick over to Indianapolis. I’ll take them and avoid this game.
  • Buffalo Bills (+5) @ Dallas Cowboys (-5)
    • These teams are basically even so I’ll take the points in a system pick. I’ll also take the Bills moneyline (+200) in an experimental pick.
  • Houston Texans (-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3)
    • System points towards an easy Texans win. Another system pick.
  • Tennessee Titans (+3) @ Carolina Panthers (-3)
    • Another even matchup. I’ll take the points and avoid this game.
  • Washington Redskins (+4) @ Miami Dolphins (-4)
    • The Redskins can’t keep playing this poorly, right? Plus, my system likes them. I’ll take them and the points in a system pick.
  • New Orleans Saints (PK) @ Atlanta Falcons (PK)
    • The Falcons rank matchup slightly better. I’ll take them and avoid this game.
  • Detroit Lions (+3) @ Chicago Bears (-3)
    • System favors the Lions and they are my team. I won’t be terribly surprised if they lose given how Cutler is playing but it’s still a good bet in my opinion. Lions in a system pick.
  • St. Louis Rams (+2.5) @ Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
    • System predicts the Browns to win easily so I’ll take them.
  • Arizona Cardinals (NA) @ Philadelphia Eagles (NA)
  • Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) @ Seattle Seahawks (+6.5)
    • System likes the Ravens in a blowout but I don’t trust them to win easily when they are supposed to. I’ll avoid this game.
  • New York Giants (+3.5) @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
    • 49ers have a slight matchup advantage. I’d take them if it were -3. At -3.5, I’ll take the Giants and avoid this game.
  • New England Patriots (PK) @ New York Jets (PK)
    • Patriots have a significant matchup advantage and are getting favorable juice. This is an easy system pick.
  • Minnesota Vikings (+13) @ Green Bay Packers (-13)
    • My system shows that the Vikings present matchup problems for the Packers and that the Packers will probably win a close game. I’ll take the Vikings in yet another system pick.
Categories: NFL Picks
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