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Week 9 Picks

Forgot to publish earlier this week. Here are the picks.

 

Overall: Falcons, Buccaneers, Browns, Bills, Chiefs, 49ers, Seahawks, Raiders, Bengals, Rams, Giants, Packers,

Top 5: Bills PK (-120), Chiefs -4 (-115), Bengals +2 (+110), Giants +8.5 (-110), Ravens +3 (-110)

Experimental Bets: Giants money line (+350), Bears money line (+320)

System Bets: Bills PK (-120), Chiefs -4 (-115), Bengals +2 (+110), Giants +8.5 (-110), Ravens +3 (EV), Bears +8 (-110)

Game Notes:

  • Atlanta Falcons (-7) @ Indianapolis Colts (+7)
    • This is a tough game for me to pick. On one hand, I don’t trust the Falcons and the Colts seem to play better at home (avg. loss is by 5 at home vs. 23 on the road). On the other hand, my system puts the Falcons ahead in 3 of 4 matchups and tied for the fourth. I guess that means I’ll take Atlanta but avoid this game.
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+8) @ New Orleans Saints (-8)
    • Another tough game. The Bucs are significant favorites vs. the Saints when they are running the ball but the Saints are better in the other 3 facets of the game. 8 points is too much though. I like the Saints but I’ll take the points (and the Bucs) and avoid this game.
  • Cleveland Browns (+11) @ Houston Texans (-11)
    • This isn’t a tough one. The Texans will win this game but 11 is too many points. I’ll take the Browns and the points and avoid this game.
  • New York Jets (PK) @ Buffalo Bills (PK)
    • This will be a system pick. The Bills are at home and overall are a favorite yet they aren’t giving up any points. The only negatives are they are closely ranked in 3 of the 4 matchups and the extra juice. That’s not enough to deter me from taking the Bills in a system pick.
  • Miami Dolphins (+4) @ Kansas City Chiefs (-4)
    • Another easy system pick. The Chiefs are at home, are significant favorites, and are only giving up 4 points. The only negatives really are the short week and the extra juice.
  • San Francisco 49ers (-3) @ Washington Redskins (+3)
    • If I were in Vegas, the juice in this game might be enough to deter me from picking the 49ers (-130). Luckily, my leagues don’t factor in juice so this is an easy pick. The 49ers are the biggest favorite for the week as they are handily winning 3 of the 4 matchups and even in the 4th. I’m not even worried that much about traveling from West to East. I think that good coaching will more than make up for that. So here it is. I’m taking the 49ers but avoiding this game due to the juice. If it were say -3.5 and -110, I’d be all over the 49ers.
  • Seattle Seahawks (+11.5) @ Dallas Cowboys (-11.5)
    • Another easy game. The Cowboys should win but 11.5 is too many points. I’ll take the Seahawks and avoid this game.
  • Denver Broncos (+8) @ Oakland Raiders (-8)
    • If Jason Campbell were still the Raiders QB, this would be an easy system pick. The Carson Palmer wild card scares me just enough to avoid this game. Raiders and avoid.
  • Cincinnati Bengals (+2) @ Tennessee Titans (-2)
    • Will the real Tennessee Titans please stand up? No not you. You haven’t been a good team since Kenny Britt got hurt. Sit back down. And I think that about sums it up. I’ll take the Bengals in a system pick getting points and extra juice.
  • St. Louis Rams (+3) @ Arizona Cardinals (-3)
    • My system thinks the Cardinals are the slightest of favorites so I’ll take the points and avoid this game.
  • New York Giants (+8.5) @ New England Patriots (-8.5)
    • I don’t like this game and would avoid it if there weren’t so many points. My system has the Giants and Patriots as almost dead even. So I’ll take the points and the Giants in an unhappy system pick. The Giants are +350 on the money line. That’s a very juicy experimental pick.
  • Green Bay Packers (-5.5) @ San Diego Chargers (+5.5)
    • When I saw this line, I thought Packers for sure. I was surprised it wasn’t 7. Then I was surprised when my system didn’t have the Packers as bigger favorites. The line almost exactly agrees with my system. So I’ll take the Packers but avoid.
  • Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)
    • My system likes the Ravens to win + they are getting points + there is favorable juice. Recipe for a system pick.
  • Chicago Bears (+8) @ Philadelphia Eagles (-8)
    • The Eagles can be scary good but they have been mistake prone. The Bears are decent. Not good and not bad. My system has these two teams matched up dead even but the line gives me 8 points. That’s a system pick. Also the Bears are +320 on the money line. That’s an experimental pick.
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