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Week 6 Picks

Overall: Rams, Jaguars, Redskins, 49ers, Panthers, Bengals, Bills, Texans, Browns, Cowboys, Saints, Vikings, Jets

 

Top 5: Redskins +1 (-105), 49ers +4 (-110), Panthers +3.5 (-110), Cowboys +7 (-110), Vikings +2.5 (+105)

 

Experimental Bets: Texans (+310), Cowboys (+250)

 

System Bets: Redskins +1 (-105), 49ers +4 (-110), Panthers +3.5 (-110), Cowboys +7 (-110), Vikings +2.5 (+105)

 

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Game Notes:

  • St. Louis Rams (+15) @ Green Bay Packers (-15)
    • I know that the Rams have been terrible and the Packers have been great but this is still the NFL and 15 points is a lot. I’ll take the points but avoid this game.
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (+12) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-12)
    • See my comment for the Rams Packers game.
  • Philadelphia Eagles (-1) @ Washington Redskins (+1)
    • It seems like people still are giving the Eagles the benefit of the doubt. They have the talent to beat anyone but can’t seem to put all the pieces together. My system shows that the Redskins are a slight favorite plus they are at home plus they are getting a point. That is a recipe for a system pick.
  • San Francisco 49ers (+4) @ Detroit Lions (-4)
    • My system ranks the 49ers and Lions as more or less equals in pass offense vs. pass defense and the 49ers rush offense vs. the Lions rush defense. However, the 49ers have a big edge when it is their rush defense vs. the Lions rush offense. I’ll take them and the points in a system pick based on this.
  • Carolina Panthers (+3.5) @ Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
    • The Panthers keep losing close games and my system thinks they are a slightly better team than the Falcons. I will take them in a system pick.
  • Indianapolis Colts (+7) @ Cincinnati Bengals (-7)
    • My system projects the Bengals as a heavy favorite but 7 is a lot of points and I don’t trust them to dominate teams they should beat easily. Therefore I’ll take the Bengals but avoid this game.
  • Buffalo Bills (+3) @ New York Giants (-3)
    • System shows the Giants are a slight favorite which agrees with the line. I’ll take them but avoid this game.
  • Houston Texans (+7.5) @ Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)
    • I suspect that this line is an overreaction to last week’s game vs. the Raiders and the key injuries of the Texans. The Texans still have one of the best offensive lines in football. They still have an overall good team. 7.5 points is still a lot. I’ll take them but avoid this game. On the experimental side, my system shows that the Ravens are a slight favorite but the money line for the Texans is +310. They have to win less than 1 in 4 times for this to make money which I think they can do.
  • Cleveland Browns (+7) @ Oakland Raiders (-7)
    • I show that the Raiders have a small advantage across the board but 7 is a lot of points. I will take the Browns but avoid this game.
  • Dallas Cowboys (+7) @ New England Patriots (-7)
    • I have the Cowboys and the Patriots ranked almost dead even, the Cowboys have had 2 weeks to prepare for this game and get healthy, and they are getting 7 points. It’s almost a perfect recipe for a system pick. I’ll take the Cowboys and the points. In addition, the Cowboys are +250 for the money line. I’ll take this as an experimental pick.
  • New Orleans Saints (-4) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4)
    • Much like the Raiders game, I show that the Saints have a small advantage across the board. I’ll take them but since it is a road game I’ll avoid this game.
  • Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) @ Chicago Bears (-2.5)
    • Here is why I dislike ESPN’s QBR rating. Jay Cutler received a 66.2 rating meaning that 43.8% of the time quarterbacks will play a better game than he did. However, if you watched the game, you would know that he actually played a much better game than this. I think it would be a challenge for almost any QB to play as good of a game as he did let alone a better game 43.8% of the time. It’s ridiculous and he earned a lot of respect this game. Despite this praise, I have the Vikings as a substantial favorite and they are getting points so I will take them as a system pick.
  • Miami Dolphins (+7) @ New York Jets (-7)
    • I have the Jets as a solid favorite but 7 points is a lot and Miami has had 2 weeks to game plan. I’ll take the Jets but avoid this game.
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