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Week 5 Picks

Overall: Giants, Buccaneers, Texans, Jets, Chargers, Saints, Cardinals, Packers, Bengals, Bills, Titans, Chiefs, Lions

Top 5: Bills +3 (+105), Bills/Eagles Over 49.5 (-110), Raiders/Texans Under 49 (-110), Bengals +1 (+105), Titans +3 (EV)

Experimental Bets: Titans +155

System Bets: Bills +3 (+105), Bengals +1 (+105), Titans +3 (EV)


Game Notes:

  • Seattle Seahawks (+10) @ New York Giants (-10)
    • Giants are ranked higher in all 4 facets of my rankings but 10 is a big number. I will take them in a game to avoid.
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) @ San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)
    • I have the Bucs as a slight favorite but home field washes it out. I’ll still take the points but it’s another avoid.
  • Oakland Raiders (+6) @ Houston Texans (-6)
    • The Texans are a modest favorite by my rankings. They “win” when on offense and when defending the pass but they “lose” big to the Raiders when it comes to defending the run. I’m going to take the Texans because I could see it being a close 1 TD game but I would still avoid this game given the choice.
  • New York Jets (+9.5) @ New England Patriots (-9.5)
    • This will be billed as strength vs. strength, the great Patriots offense vs. the great Jets defense. However, the Jets run defense is living on reputation right now and not results. That being said, 9.5 points is a lot for a rivalry game and when I compare categories, the Jets and Patriots are basically tied for 3 categories with the Patriots winning when they run the ball.  That doesn’t sound like a 9.5 point game to me. So I will take the Jets and avoid this game.
  • San Diego Chargers (-4.5) @ Denver Broncos (+4.5)
    • The Chargers should win this game but they have a history of playing down to their opponent’s level. I will take the Chargers but avoid this game.
  • New Orleans Saints (-6.5) @ Carolina Panthers (+6.5)
    • Saints should win this game easily but it is a lot of points on the road so I will avoid it.
  • Arizona Cardinals (+3) @ Minnesota Vikings (-3)
    • I show the Vikings as having just the slightest of edges so I will take the points but avoid this game.
  • Green Bay Packers (-5.5) @ Atlanta Falcons (+5.5)
    • The Packers should win but 5.5 points in an away game is a lot. I will take them but avoid.
  • Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5)
    • My rankings give the Bengals the 2nd greatest advantage for the week (behind the Giants). Huge advantage plus points means a system pick. Lock it up.
  • Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Buffalo Bills (+3)
    • My rankings give the Bills a pretty strong advantage (only winning two categories but winning them decisively) plus they are getting points plus they are at home. I’ll take the Bills in a system pick.
  • Tennessee Titans (+3.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
    • My system shows the Titans having a strong advantage in all 4 aspects of it ranks plus they are getting points. Sounds like another system pick to me. Also, the money line is +155. Let’s lock that up as well as an experimental pick.
  • Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5) @ Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
    • I show the Chiefs are a very small favorite. I’ll take them and the points but avoid this game.
  • Chicago Bears (+5.5) @ Detroit Lions (-5.5)
    • Both my system and I like the Lions but I’m not comfortable with the points or the MNF stage so I will take them but avoid this game.
Categories: NFL Picks
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