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Week 4 Picks

Overall: Lions, Saints, Redskins, Titans, Bengals, Vikings, Panthers, Texans, Seahawks, Giants, Chargers, Packers, Raiders, Ravens, Buccaneers

Top 5: Saints -7 (-105), Redskins PK (-105), Texans -3.5 (-110), Giants -1 (-110), Ravens -3 (-120)

Experimental Bets: Panthers (+240), Raiders (+175), 49ers (+350)

System Bets: Saints -7 (-105), Redskins PK (-105), Texans -3.5 (-110), Giants -1 (-110), Ravens -3 (-120), Panthers +6.5 (-110), 49ers +9 (-110)

 

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Game Notes:

  • Detroit Lions (+1.5) @ Dallas Cowboys (-1.5)
    • Instant reaction: Detroit should win easily. The more I think about it, the more reasons I can come up with to avoid this game. For starters, my system only gives Detroit a slight advantage. Home field probably washes out this advantage. Next, I don’t think Detroit will have any answer for DeMarcus Ware. Does Dallas have enough of an edge with him to eliminate the offensive edge that Detroit has in its passing game? I’m worried the answer is yes. Therefore, I’m picking Detroit in an avoid game. It’s close though.
  • New Orleans Saints (-7) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+7)
    • The Saints are the better team in all 4 facets of the game that I rank. They should win and they should win easily. I’ll take the Saints in a system pick. Note: If the weather forecast changes to indicate bad weather, this will become an avoid game.
  • San Francisco 49ers (+9) @ Philadelphia Eagles (-9)
    • 9 points is a lot and my rankings favor the 49ers outright. That is enough for me to pick them as a system pick despite a handful of concerns (Vick is on the Eagles, a west coast team traveling to east coast, a must-win for the Eagles, common sense, etc.). Experimentally, I should take the money line (+350) too.
  • Washington Redskins (PK) @ St. Louis Rams (PK)
    • Despite the short week, the Redskins should be able to win this game outright. They have a big advantage when they are running the ball and they have a big advantage when St. Louis is passing the ball. I will take Washington in a system pick.
  • Tennessee Titans (+1) @ Cleveland Browns (-1)
    • If it weren’t for the Kenny Britt injury, this would be a system pick. However, I am worried that the Titans won’t be the same without him so I will pick them in an avoid game.
  • Buffalo Bills (-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (+3)
    • Buffalo is 3-0. They just beat New England who many considered the best team in the league. Cincinnati is 1-2. They have a rookie QB starting.  Their starting running back was just suspended. Easy bet right? Not so fast. My system actually gives Cincinnati the outright advantage. Things like this really make me doubt my system. So I will go against common sense and pick Cincinnati in an avoid game.
  • Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5)
    • System has the Vikings winning soundly. I am going to avoid this game though because I wonder if the Vikings are going to fall apart after blowing 3 double digit halftime leads in a row. Minnesota in an avoid game.
  • Carolina Panthers (+6.5) @ Chicago Bears (-6.5)
    • My system thinks Carolina has a good advantage. Advantage + points + no obvious red flags equal a system pick. I also think the moneyline (+240) is a good bet. It’s experimental though.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) @ Houston Texans (-3.5)
    • Texans have an advantage in all 4 categories. One has to wonder which Steelers team is going to show up this week but regardless I think they will have no answer for Mario Williams. I am taking Houston with a system pick.
  • Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) @ Seattle Seahawks (+4.5)
    • System gives Atlanta an advantage but not large enough to make me pick against points and home field. I’ll take Seattle in an avoid game.
  • New York Giants (-1) @ Arizona Cardinals (+1)
    • This is such an obvious pick that it is scary. Giants are Cardinals are close in 3 aspects of the game but when the Giants are running the ball, they should have a sizable advantage. I’ll take the Giants in a system pick.
  • Miami Dolphins (+7) @ San Diego Chargers (-7)
    • By all accounts, the Chargers should win this one easily. I’m not as confident that easily with be 7 or more points so I’ll take the Chargers in an avoid pick.
  • Denver Broncos (+13) @ Green Bay Packers (-13)
    • Much like the Chargers pick, I expect the Packers to win easily but the amount of points worries me so I will avoid this game. Packers in an avoid.
  • New England Patriots (-4) @ Oakland Raiders (+4)
    • Two top 10 offensives vs. two mediocre defenses. I’ll take home field and the points but avoid this game as I will lose a lot of value to variance. The Raiders are probably a good money line bet at +175 but this would be an experimental bet.
  • New York Jets (+3) @ Baltimore Ravens (-3)
    • The Ravens have an advantage in 3 of the 4 aspects my system ranks. I will take them in a system pick.
  • Indianapolis Colts (+10) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10)
    • Tampa Bay should win. If Kerry Collins were healthy and QB, I’d take Indianapolis and the points in an avoid game. With Curtis Painters as the QB, I’ll take Tampa Bay. I don’t know how to describe the events last week after he came into the game other than to say he was really lucky to have only had one turnover returned for a TD. Tampa Bay in an avoid game.
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