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Ranking System

This is the second week that I have referred to ranking during my picks. I have “upgraded” my system.

Previously, I had been focusing on “fundamental truths” of teams. For example, in week 1 I picked Kansas City to cover against Buffalo since Kansas City’s fundamental truth was that they ran the ball really well and Buffalo’s was they defended the run very poorly. It was an experimental bet since it was week 1 and I was using information on last year’s teams to base my prediction. Now we are 3 weeks in and have some data on this year’s teams available. I upgraded my system by replacing the observational truths for each team with 4 home grown statistical rankings: Offensive Pass Rank, Defensive Pass Rank, Offensive Rush Rank, and Defensive Rush Rank. I then compare how Team A’s Offensive Pass Rank matches up with Team B’s Defensive Pass Rank, how Team B’s Offensive Pass Rank matches up with Team A’s Defensive Pass Rank, etc. There are some very important variables currently being left out (strength of schedule, special teams, etc) and I hope to devise a way to incorporate them effectively.

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Categories: NFL Picks
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