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Week 3 Picks

Overall: 49ers, Bills, Texans, Browns, Titans, Lions, Panthers, Chiefs, Raiders, Ravens, Falcons, Cardinals, Packers, Colts

Top 5: Patriots/Bills Over 53.5 (-110), Titans-7 (-110), Lions -3.5 (-110), Ravens -3.5 (-110), Cardinals -3.5 (-110)

Experimental Bets: None this week.

System Bets: Patriots/Bills Over 53.5 (-110), Titans-7 (-110), Lions -3.5 (-110), Ravens -3.5 (-110), Cardinals -3.5 (-110)


Game Notes:

  • San Francisco 49ers (+2.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
    • Two bad teams. The only significant advantage I see is that San Francisco appears to be good at stopping the run while the Bengals are just an average team at stopping the run. I’ll take this advantage and the points in an avoid game.
  • New England Patriots (-8) @ Buffalo Bills (+8)
    • No one is surprised that New England is 2-0 but a lot of people are surprised that Buffalo is. I have NE as the #1 passing team and #5 rushing team in the NFL. They are absolutely dominant on offense. However, their defense still is a work in progress. Buffalo is very similar in that they have good passing and rushing ranks but terrible defensive ranks. I’ll take home field and the points in an avoid game. I like over 53.5 for this game as neither defense appears very good at stopping anyone.
  • Houston Texans (+4) @ New Orleans Saints (-4)
    • My gut reaction is to avoid this game but take the Saints because I consider them the better team. However, when I fed this game into my ranking system, I was blown away by the fact it lists Houston as an overwhelming favorite. It lists the passing matchups as more or less a wash but the Texans have a major advantage in both running the ball and defending the run. I have a feeling that this advantage will disappear as the sample size increases but it was still pretty shocking. I am still going to avoid this game but I will go with Houston instead of my gut.
  • New York Giants (NA) @ Philadelphia Eagles (NA)
  • Miami Dolphins (+2.5) @ Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
    • Here is another game where my system shows one team to be the overwhelming favorite but I am pretty sure it is a symptom of sample size. Miami has faced a top 10 team in both of its games (#1 and #5 teams by my rankings) while Cleveland has faced the #11 and #26 teams by my rankings. I’ll stick with my system and take Cleveland but I’m going to avoid this game.
  • Denver Broncos (+7) @ Tennessee Titans (-7)
    • I was very impressed with Tennessee’s win last week and overall I like their team. I think they will come down and finish in the middle of the pack but you can’t argue with what they have done so far. Similarly, you can’t argue with what Denver has (hasn’t) done either. I also show that Tennessee in all major offensive and defensive categories that I rank. So I am going to go with Tennessee as a system pick.
  • Detroit Lions (-3.5) @ Minnesota Vikings (+3.5)
    • Gut reaction is that this is an easy Lions victory. The scariest thing is that the Lions haven’t been favored in Minnesota in exactly 30 years. My system shows that Detroit has a huge advantage in the passing game while Minnesota has a slight advantage in the running game. Detroit has a 13 rank advantage when passing the ball and a 25 rank advantage when defending the pass vs. Minnesota having a 6 rank advantage running the ball and a 1 rank advantage defending the run. This seems to confirm what my gut is saying. Therefore, going with the Lions in a system pick.
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) @ Carolina Panthers (-3.5)
    • Despite throwing for 400+ yards again, Cam Newton made the rookie mistakes I expected last week. I expect this to be the way throughout the season. I was pleased to see that my rankings also aren’t high on the Panthers passing offense (#20). However, Jacksonville is terrible and I have them as #29 overall. My system has Carolina as a slight favorite and I agree so I will pick them in an avoid game.
  • Kansas City Chiefs (+14.5) @ San Diego Chargers (-14.5)
    • KC’s season is already over as they have suffered injuries to numerous key players and they have been blown out of the first two games. San Diego is playing like the typical slow starter that they are. My system gives SD the edge but not by a wide margin and 14.5 is a lot of points to give. I’ll take KC in an avoid.
  • New York Jets (-3.5) @ Oakland Raiders (+3.5)
    • Oakland is 1-1 (both close games) against teams that should be a lot worse than the Jets. However, points and home field is a tempting combination. Add in that my system favors them (SSL) and I’ll take the Raiders in yet another avoid.
  • Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) @ St. Louis Rams (+3.5)
    • Another tempting home field and points combination. However, unlike the Raiders game, both my gut and my system see the Ravens winning this game easily. I’ll go with the Ravens in a system pick.
  • Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5)
    • Two Jekyll and Hyde teams. I have no idea which version of each team will show up this week so I’m going to avoid this pick. My system has them ranked dead even. I’ll take the points in an avoid game.
  • Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) @ Seattle Seahawks (+3.5)
    • Just like the Ravens game, my gut and system override the home field points combination. I show Arizona having an edge is all facets of offense and defense so I will take them as a system pick.
  • Green Bay Packers (-3.5) @ Chicago Bears (+3.5)
    • My system likes the Packers a lot (advantage in all 4 rankings) but I am going to avoid the rivalry game. Since I have to pick, I’ll go with GB who is clearly the better team but would not be shocked if Chicago surprised everyone.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (-10.5) @ Indianapolis Colts (+10.5)
    • Home field + 10.5 points tells me to stay away from this game. My system says its close but I think its biased since half the sample size is Pittsburgh’s blowout loss to Baltimore. I’ll take Indianapolis in an avoid game. I’ll also note that my gut says Pittsburgh will win easily.
  • Washington Redskins (NA) @ Dallas Cowboys (NA)
Categories: NFL Picks
  1. bisthekey
    September 22, 2011 at 8:36 am

    WordPress isn’t cooperating with the formatting this morning. Apologies for that.

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