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Week 2 Picks

Overall: Packers, Raiders, Buccaneers, Lions, Browns, Cowboys, Redskins, Saints, Dolphins, Chargers, Ravens, Bengals, Eagles, Steelers, Jets, Rams

Top 5: Raiders +3.5 (-115), Packers -9.5 (-110), Cowboys -3 (-120), Buccaneers +3 (-110), Bears/Saints Over 47 (-110)

Experimental Bets: Packers -9.5 (-110), Cowboys -3 (-120), Buccaneers +3 (-110), Ravens -5.5 (-110)

System Bets: Raiders +3.5 (-115), Bears/Saints Over 47 (-110)

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Game Notes:

  • Green Bay Packers (-9.5) @ Carolina Panthers (+9.5)
    • Green Bay looked great playing against another top team last week. Carolina, especially Cam Newton, looked better than expected playing against a poor team last week. My thinking is that people are giving Newton too much credit right now and this week he’s going to make a lot of mistakes while trying to keep up with the Green Bay offense. I’ll take Green Bay.
  • Oakland Raiders (+3) @ Buffalo Bills (-3)
    • Last week, I picked against Buffalo because their run defense was so poor.  They got an early lead and some turnovers and thus it is tough to tell whether the 6 yards per carry they allowed is a product of mainly pass defense packages or continued poor run defense. Oakland has one of the better run offenses. I’ll take Oakland over Buffalo in that their strength matches up against Buffalo’s biggest weakness.
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) @ Minnesota Vikings (-3)
    • I thought that Tampa Bay would be a challenge for Detroit and that Minnesota would be terrible. Both games the score was closer than the actual matchup and both teams played poorly. In a battle of two teams that aren’t playing well, Tampa Bay is still a much more talented than Minnesota and should be the outright favorite.
  • Kansas City Chiefs (+8) @ Detroit Lions (-8)
    • KC was surprisingly blown out last week and Detroit has the look of a winner. However, it is difficult to tell just how bad Kansas City was (vs. how unlucky KC was). I’ll take Detroit but I would look to avoid this game.
  • Cleveland Browns (-2.5) @ Indianapolis Colts (+2.5)
    • Cleveland played like a young inexperienced team last week. They made a lot of mistakes and ultimately beat themselves. The Colts looked terrible playing a far superior opponent. Will the Colts look better in a game where the talent is more evenly matched or are they that inept without Manning? I’m guessing that they will look better but not enough. I’ll take Cleveland.
  • Dallas Cowboys (-3) @ San Francisco 49ers (+3)
    • Heartbreaking loss for Dallas last week but they looked every bit the explosive team that I thought they were. On the other side, San Francisco looked every bit the bad team I thought they were. Dallas should win this one easily.
  • Arizona Cardinals (+4) @ Washington Redskins (-4)
    • This is a tough game to gage. Arizona’s offense looked potent but their defense made Cam Newton look amazing. How much can they fix on D in one week? On the other side, Washington looked strong against the Giants but how much of that is due to the Giants injury woes? I’ll take home field and Washington but prefer to avoid this game.
  • Chicago Bears (+6.5) @ New Orleans Saints (-6.5)
    • The Bears continue to struggle to protect the passer but rushing the passer is a weakness of New Orleans. So that is a wash. I expect New Orleans to win this game but don’t love the points so I’ll take New Orleans in an avoid game. I like the over in this game a lot. Over 47.
  • Houston Texans (-3) @ Miami Dolphins (+3)
    • New England made Miami look bad and Indianapolis made Houston look good. Just how much? I don’t know. So I’ll take home field and the points in an avoid game.
  • San Diego Chargers (+7) @ New England Patriots (-7)
    • The Chargers start slow and often play to the level of their opponents. Playing to the level of your opponents works both ways so I expect the Chargers to play well this week. New England has a short week and a slew of offensive line injuries. I expect this to be a close game. I’ll take San Diego.
  • Baltimore Ravens (-6) @ Tennessee Titans (+6)
    • Baltimore looked like the best team in the NFL and Tennessee was the poor team we expected. I expect more of the same this week and take Baltimore.
  • Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5) @ Denver Broncos (-4.5)
    • Both teams are bad. I’ll take the points in an avoid game.
  • Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) @ Atlanta Falcons (+2.5)
    • Atlanta normally has a big home field advantage but they’ve struggled all of 2011 and the Eagles are one of the best teams in the NFL. I’ll take the Eagles in an avoid game.
  • Seattle Seahawks (+14.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-14.5)
    • I’m not sure how much of Pittsburgh’s loss was Pittsburgh being bad and how much of it was Baltimore being good. Either way, Seattle looked inept so I’ll go with Pittsburgh in another avoid.
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (+9) @ New York Jets (-9)
    • Jacksonville didn’t look good last week but 9 is a lot of points. I’ll take the Jets in a game to avoid.
  • St. Louis Rams (+4.5) @ New York Giants (-4.5)
    • Both St. Louis and New York have suffered in the injury department. If Bradford is ready to go, then I think the Rams are better equipped to recover than the Giants. I’ll take the Rams keeping an eye on his health in another avoid game.
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