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Week 1 Picks


Overall: Saints, Browns, Falcons, Titans, Ravens, Redskins, Cardinals, Chiefs, Seahawks, Chargers, Texans, Cowboys, Eagles, Lions, Dolphins, Raiders


Top 5: Atlanta -3 (EV), Atlanta/Chicago Over 40.5 (-110), Kansas City -5.5 (-110), Indianapolis/Houston Over 43 (-110), Tennessee +3 (-110)


Experimental Bets: Atlanta -3 (EV), Atlanta/Chicago Over 40.5 (-110), Kansas City -5.5 (-110)


System Bets: None




Game Notes:

  • New Orleans Saints (+4) @ Green Bay Packers (-4)
    • Both teams should be very good.  The weather should be nice. I’m leaning taking the points but I would avoid this game if I could.
  • Cincinnati Bengals (+6.5) @ Cleveland Browns (-6.5)
    • Cincinnati is terrible and Cleveland will probably be just slightly less terrible. 6.5 is a lot of points though. Another game that I would avoid. Instead I’ll take Cleveland. They could win by a TD.
  • Atlanta Falcons (-3) @ Chicago Bears (+3)
    • Atlanta was one of the best teams last year. Chicago was one of the luckiest. People are down on Chicago but maybe too much. Martz will have this team competitive. However, Atlanta is too good to not take here. I also really like betting Over 40.5 as Atlanta is claiming they are going to be the greatest show on turf this year and potentially has a poor pass rush (which cancels out Chicago’s poor O-line).  This could be a shootout.
  • Tennessee Titans (+3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)
    • Jacksonville cut their starting quarterback less than a week before this game. Their new starter is an 8 year pro on his 3rd NFL team with only 18 attempts this preseason. There is no way I can bet on him and give points, especially against a division rival.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) @ Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)
    • Two good rivals squaring off. This is a classic coin flip. I’ll take the Ravens because they are at home but otherwise I would avoid this game.
  • New York Giants (-3) @ Washington Redskins (+3)
    • Another game to avoid. The Giants have been devastated by injuries but the Redskins haven’t been good in recent years and have been having a quarterback competition between two mediocre quarterbacks. I’ll take the points and home field but I am not happy about it.
  • Carolina Panthers (+7) @ Arizona Cardinals (-7)
    • Arizona has a new, unproven quarterback but Carolina has a newer, more unproven quarterback AND a new head coach. I’ll take Arizona but I won’t be surprised if this is a close game (read: both teams play poorly and can’t score).
  • Buffalo Bills (+5.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)
    • Buffalo had the worst rush defense in the NFL last year and Kansas City had one of the best rush offenses.  Even if everything else were equal, I’d take Kansas City. I like this pick.
  • Seattle Seahawks (+5) @ San Francisco 49ers (-5)
    • Seattle has a new QB, WR, and TE. San Francisco has a new coach. They were 7-9 and 6-10 respectively last year and split the season series. This is a classic avoid game. I’ll take the points because to me this is a 50/50 game.
  • Minnesota Vikings (+8.5) @ San Diego Chargers (-8.5)
    • San Diego is good. Minnesota is bad. San Diego is notorious for starting slow and playing down to their opponents but the talent gap is just too great. I’ll take San Diego in an avoid game.
  • Indianapolis Colts (+8.5) @ Houston Texans (-8.5)
    • Houston was top 5 in rushing and Indianapolis was bottom 1/3 against the rush. Indianapolis won’t have Peyton Manning. This could easily be a blowout. I don’t like it enough to bet it though. I like Over 43 for this game as the Texans don’t have a particularly good defense either.
  • Dallas Cowboys (+4) @ New York Jets (-4)
    • The Jets play to their opponent’s level and Dallas is no slouch. This is a coin flip game so I’ll take the points.
  • Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) @ St. Louis Rams (+4.5)
    • Philadelphia is ultra-talented. St. Louis is up and coming. Philadelphia has a lot of new pieces.  St. Louis has a middle of the road defense that gets to the quarterback. I expect Vick’s running ability to neutralize the pass rush and Philadelphia’s D to give young St. Louis some problems. I like Philly here.
  • Detroit Lions (+1.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.5)
    • A game to avoid. Detroit is a media darling with a potentially devastating defense and explosive offense. Tampa Bay overachieved but has a great young quarterback and home field. Toss a coin. I’ll take Detroit because I think the ceiling is higher.
  • New England Patriots (-7) @ Miami Dolphins (+7)
    • It feels like Miami gives New England fits and Miami has a good defense. Overall, Miami isn’t very good. New England is great. If Miami wasn’t at home, I’d take New England but since they are I’ll take home field and the points.
  • Oakland Raiders (+3) @ Denver Broncos (-3)
    • The Raiders swept the division last year but didn’t make the playoffs. The Broncos fired their coach. I have no idea what is going to happen in this game so I’ll take the points.
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