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Three fundamental rules for gambling:

  1. Pick with a Confidence Edge
    • This is the most important concept in gambling. When a bet is placed, someone always has an edge. If there is also a fee (aka drop, rake, commission) as there is in sports betting, your edge has to be great enough to compensate for this. In other words, a good bet is not one that wins more often than it loses. A good bet is one that wins more than the house’s cut.
  2. Have a System
    • The general goal of a system is to provide a framework for comparatively evaluating picks. It is nearly impossible to see through the variance if your method changes from week to week. There needs to be a baseline in place to help you determine if your picks are lucky or good.
  3. Think Outside the Box (System)
    • Evolution is fueled by random changes that sometimes introduce improvements (close enough). Similarly, studying new variables and occasionally straying from your system is a good thing. If you track them, they may lead to the evolution of your betting system.
How do these apply to me?
  1. Some weeks I may make zero picks. If I’m not confident enough in any picks, I won’t make any.
  2. I have a system for picks (albeit a highly subjective and unscientific one). I will make a post on this later.
  3. I will always be experimenting with new things. When I post my results, I will post system results, experimentation results, and overall results.
Categories: NFL Picks
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