Finished the year strong. 10-5-1 overall and 6-4 in system and experimental picks. I decided against continuing through the playoffs. Need a break.
Overall: Eagles, Jaguars, Jets, Patriots, Rams, Bears, Lions, Panthers, Texans, Buccaneers, Chargers, Broncos, Seahawks, Ravens, Browns, Giants
Experimental Bets: Panthers/Saints Over 55 (-110), Texans moneyline (+140), Chargers moneyline (+140), Seahawks moneyline (+125), Ravens moneyline (-125)
System Bets: Jets PK (+105), Bears PK (EV), Chargers +3 (-105), Seahawks +2.5 (EV), Ravens -1 (-120)
- Washington Redskins (+8.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5)
- Both my systems show the Eagles as large favorites but only covering a line this large about 52% of the time. I’ll take the Eagles and avoid this game.
- Indianapolis Colts (+3.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5)
- Another game that is close. System 1 shows the Jaguars covering 54% of the time so I will take them and avoid.
- New York Jets(PK) @ Miami Dolphins (PK)
- Both of my systems show the Jets are the favorites but disagree on scale. Either way, this is a good system pick especially since I am getting favorable juice (+105).
- Buffalo Bills (+11) @ New England Patriots (-11)
- Systems predict the Patriots cover almost exactly 50% of the time. I’d normally take the points but I don’t think the Patriots will take any chances with the number one seed on the line. Patriots and avoid.
- San Francisco 49ers (-10.5) @ St. Louis Rams (+10.5)
- The 49ers have a lot to play for and the Rams are terrible but the fact is simply that large road favorites aren’t covering those big spreads very often. I’ll take the points and avoid this game.
- Chicago Bears (PK) @ Minnesota Vikings (PK)
- Both systems agree that the Bears are the favorite in this game. Add that the Bears looked much better with McCown as their QB last week, the Vikings just lost Adrian Peterson to injury again, and some favorable juice and we are looking at a very tasty system pick.
- Detroit Lions (-3) @ Green Bay Packers (+3)
- It’s hard to be objective because I am a Lions fan but there are a lot of outside variables in this game. Ultimately I will take the Lions because in my opinion weather + resting + both teams best interest > Packers skill advantage; however, I will avoid this game.
- Carolina Panthers (+8.5) @ New Orleans Saints (-8.5)
- My systems show the Saints covering slightly more than 50% of the time. I’m going to flip the pick because there is a chance that the Saints see the 49ers winning in a blowout and start resting players towards the end of the game. I will avoid because of that too. I really like Over 55 points as an experimental pick.
- Tennessee Titans (-2.5) @ Houston Texans (+2.5)
- My systems say the Texans are heavy favorites. However, it is a meaningless game in terms of playoff seeding to them and supposedly they are going to rest players. I personally think they don’t want to limp into the playoffs with three straight losses and are going to show up for this game. I’ll take them and avoid this game and I’ll take the moneyline +140 as an experimental pick.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+11.5) @ Atlanta Falcons (-11.5)
- My systems say this is 50/50. The Falcons may have nothing to play for and 11.5 is a lot of points so I’ll take the Bucs and avoid.
- San Diego Chargers (+3) @ Oakland Raiders (-3)
- Both of my systems agree that the Chargers are the favorite and they are getting points and favorable juice so it’s a good system pick. In addition, the moneyline +140 is tempting.
- Kansas City Chiefs (+3) @ Denver Broncos (-3)
- My systems don’t agree on this game and I can’t make up my mind about it. I’m going to go with Denver because this game means more to them but I will avoid this game.
- Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) @ Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)
- Both systems show the Seahawks as heavy favorites. Add in favorable juice and points and we got a great system pick. In addition, +125 for the moneyline is a good experimental bet.
- Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5)
- Both systems show the Ravens as heavy favorites and it is a must win game for them. I have them at -2.5 in one league and -1 (-120) in the other. These seem like good system picks to me. In addition, the -125 moneyline is a good experimental pick. The Ravens have to win 5 out of 9 to break even on that bet for me.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) @ Cleveland Browns (+7)
- Both systems show the Steelers covering about 60% of the time but with the potential of resting players late in the game and bad weather, I’ll take the points and avoid this game.
- Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) @ New York Giants (-2.5)
- Both systems say the Giants cover slightly more than 50%. I’ll take them but avoid this game due to some unfavorable juice.
Overall I was only 8-8 this week but it was profitable in that I hit both moneylines and 3 out of 5 system bets. Hope to finish strong this week. I’ll probably continue on with the playoffs then make notes as to how I can possibly improve and features to offer before taking some time off. I’m hoping next year to up the content and the quality but it depends on time constraints.
Overall: Texans, Raiders, Broncos, Titans, Bengals, Dolphins, Ravens, Giants, Vikings, Panthers, Rams, Lions, 49ers, Cowboys, Bears, Falcons
Top 5: (Getting rid of this. It is meaningless.)
Experimental Bets: Raiders moneyline (+120), Vikings moneyline (+250)
System Bets: Texans -5.5 (-110), Raiders PK (+105), Bengals -4 (-110), Vikings +6.5 (-110), Falcons +6.5 (-110)
- Houston Texans (-5.5) @ Indianapolis Colts (+5.5)
- Let this sink in. The Texans are still better than the Colts in pass offense, pass defense, rush offense, rush defense, kicking, punting, kick returning, and punt returning. I know system 1 says similarly ranked teams only over 50 something percent of the time but I’m willing to bet the Texans raise that average. Texans system bet.
- Oakland Raiders (PK) @ Kansas City Chiefs (PK)
- Both systems have the Raiders as the better team and they are getting favorable juice. That’s a good recipe for a system pick. The Raiders moneyline is +120. That’s a good experimental pick.
- Denver Broncos (-3) @ Buffalo Bills (+3)
- Both systems agree that the Broncos are a slight favorite. Enough to cover 3 points? Probably but there are going to be a lot of pushes plus it kills me to take the Bills yet again. Luckily I can pick the Broncos half of the coin flip and avoid this game.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) @ Tennessee Titans (-7.5)
- I hate this line. I would not be surprised at all if Jacksonville won this game. However, both systems say to go Titans so I will and I will avoid.
- Arizona Cardinals (+4) @ Cincinnati Bengals (-4)
- Both systems agree that the Bengals are the way to go. I’ll take them in a system bet.
- Miami Dolphins (+9.5) @ New England Patriots (-9.5)
- System 1.0 says to take the Dolphins but System 2.0 says to take the Patriots. I’ll take the points and avoid this game.
- Cleveland Browns (+13) @ Baltimore Ravens (-13)
- Both systems say to pick the Ravens but barely so I will avoid this game.
- New York Giants (+3) @ New York Jets (-3)
- Another game where my systems differ so I will go with the Giants and avoid.
- Minnesota Vikings (+6.5) @ Washington Redskins (-6.5)
- Both systems agree to take the Vikings so I will. In addition, the Vikings are +250 so I’ll take their moneyline.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5) @ Carolina Panthers (-7.5)
- Both systems say to take the Panthers but I don’t trust them so I will avoid this game.
- St. Louis Rams (+17) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-17)
- Huge home favorites have only covered spreads larger than 14 27% of the time this season. So this would probably be a system bet on the Rams. However, it is off the board on the online sports books and only available via one of my leagues so I am forced to avoid.
- San Diego Chargers (+2.5) @ Detroit Lions (-2.5)
- Both systems have the Lions as a slight favorite with home field tipping the pick to them. It is close though so I will avoid this game.
- San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) @ Seattle Seahawks (+1.5)
- Seattle is on a bit of a roll but the smart money is on the 49ers. I’d take them with a system pick if the juice wasn’t -130.
- Philadelphia Eagles (+2) @ Dallas Cowboys (-2)
- The systems say to pick Dallas. As usual I will avoid this game because the Eagles can beat anyone when they aren’t too busy beating themselves.
- Chicago Bears (+13) @ Green Bay Packers (-13)
- I’d love to take the Packers in this game but I don’t want to give up 13 points with the potential of bad weather and against a division rival. I’ll take the Bears and avoid.
- Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) @ New Orleans Saints (-6.5)
- My heart likes the Saints but my systems like the Falcons. I’ll take them with a system pick.
I went 9-7 overall last week but only .500 in system and experimental picks. I hope to finish the season strong these next two weeks. I’m still alive in both of my pick’em leagues and my fantasy football league so I have a lot to pull for.
Overall: Falcons, Cowboys, Giants, Packers, Texans, Colts, Chiefs, Bears, Dolphins, Vikings, Rams, Lions, Browns, Patriots, Jets, 49ers
Top 5: Giants -7 (-110), Lions PK (-120), Browns +7 (-110), Jets -1 (+115), Ravens -1.5 (-125)
Experimental Bets: Seahawks moneyline (+170), Jets moneyline (+125)
System Bets: Giants -7 (-110), Lions PK (-120), Browns +7 (-110), Patriots -6 (-110), Jets -1 (+115), Ravens -1.5 (-125)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+11) @ Atlanta Falcons (-11)
- What a good line. There are a lot of good lines this week. I’ll take the Falcons as System 1.0 shows them covering 56% of the time but I’ll avoid this game.
- Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5)
- Another good line. I’ll take the Cowboys to cover in a must-win game over a team in the Bucs that is falling apart and may have given up on this season. I’m avoiding this game too.
- Washington Redskins (+7) @ New York Giants (-7)
- System 1.0 predicts the Giants will cover this about 50% of the time. System 2.0 has the Giants as a large favorite as well. I’ll take them b
- Green Bay Packers (-14) @ Kansas City Chiefs (+14)
- A home team getting 14 points is an almost instant pick. I’ll avoid though because I’ll be thoroughly surprised if Green Bay doesn’t at least push here.
- Carolina Panthers (+6.5) @ Houston Texans (-6.5)
- Both systems agree that the Texans are large favorites and should cover. I’ll avoid simply because they took another hit this week with the loss of their defensive coordinator to medical leave. Eventually, all these personnel losses are going to bite them.
- Tennessee Titans (-6.5) @ Indianapolis Colts (+6.5)
- Both systems project the Titans to be a huge favorite but similar teams in this position have only covered about 50% of the time this season. Add the fact that the Titans might be giving Jake Locker his first start and the pick moves over to Indy. I’ll take the Colts but avoid.
- Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) @ Chicago Bears (-3.5)
- If the Bears were healthy, they’d be an easy pick here. But they aren’t. However, my systems have had a few weeks of the Caleb Hanie experience now and still project the Bears. I’ll listen and take the Bears and avoid this game. I will take the Seahawks moneyline (+170) as I think they are the better team right now (healthy QB, healthy RB, won 4 of 5 vs. backup QB, backup RB, and lost 3 straight).
- Miami Dolphins (-1.5) @ Buffalo Bills (+1.5)
- System 1.0 has the Dolphins as a significant favorite to win and cover but System 2.0 has them as a much small favorite. I’ll take the Dolphins but avoid this game.
- New Orleans Saints (-7) @ Minnesota Vikings (+7)
- System 1.0 says to take the points and home field here. I don’t like it so I’ll take the Vikings and avoid this game.
- Cincinnati Bengals (-6) @ St. Louis Rams (+6)
- My systems keep telling me to take the points and home field and the worse team when I think one team is far superior to the other. I’ll take the Rams and avoid this game.
- Detroit Lions (PK) @ Oakland Raiders (PK)
- The Lions are the better team. Injuries and home field might help the Raiders in this one but I wouldn’t bet on it. Lions, system pick.
- Cleveland Browns (+7) @ Arizona Cardinals (-7)
- Classic overreaction line? Both of my systems have these teams close. I’ll take the Browns with a system pick.
- New England Patriots (-6) @ Denver Broncos (+6)
- Both systems agree that I should take the Patriots here and I will with a system pick.
- New York Jets (+2.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)
- Both systems agree that the Jets are the better team and should cover a large percentage of the time. I have them as +1 (+115) in one league and +2.5 (-110) in the other. I’ll also take the moneyline (+125) as an experimental pick.
- Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) @ San Diego Chargers (+2.5)
- Both systems agree that the Ravens are a large favorite and should cover this about 70% of the time. I’ll take them with a system pick. I have them as -1.5 (-125) in one league and -2.5 (-110) in the other.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) @ San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)
- My systems don’t agree so I will avoid this game. I will take the 49ers because I think system 2.0 is better than system 1.0 and because Big Ben is beat up.
I went .500 last week but came out slightly ahead due to the differences in payouts. So far this year, my system is a winner thought it is not a statistically significant winner yet. I need a much bigger sample before I know the answer to that.